http://mp3.iciba.com/viewsong-58.shtml

On a dark desert highway, cool wind in my hair
Warm smell of colitas rising up through the air
Up ahead in the distance, I saw a shimmering light
My head grew heavy, and my sight grew dim: I had to stop for the night

There she stood in the doorway when the mission bell
And I was thinking to myself, "This could be Heaven or this could be Hell "
Then she lit up a candle and she showed me the way
There were voices down the corridor, I thought I heard them say:

Welcome to the Hotel California. Such a lovely place; such a Lovely face
There's plenty of room at the Hotel California
Any time of year, you can find it here

Her mind is Tiffany-twisted, She got the Mercedes Benz
She's got a lot of pretty, pretty boys that she calls friends
How they dance in the courtyard, sweet summer sweat.
Some dance to remember, some dance to forget

So I called up the Captain, "Please bring me my wine"
He said," We haven't had that spirit here since 1969"
And still those voices are calling from far away
Wake you up in the middle of the night, just to hear them say:

Welcome to the Hotel California. Such a lovely Place; such a lovely face
They live it up at the Hotel California. What a nice surprise, bring your alibis

Mirrors on the ceiling, the pink champagne on ice
And she said "We are all just prisoners here of our own device"
And in the master's chambers, they gathered for the feast
They stab it with their steely knives, but they just can't kill the beast

Last thing I remember, I was running for the door
I had to find the passage back to the place I was before
'Relax' said the nightman, We are programed to receive.
You can check out any time you like, but you can never leave

COLD OPEN:

[INT. TATTOO PARLOUR-NIGHT]

Tattoo Artist: (Finishes the final touches on “ENGLISH, PERCY & FITZ”.) Set of sleeves all in a couple of months. Takes guys years to get the kind of ink you’ve done.

(Micheal puts his shirt back on)

Micheal: I don’t have a few years. (Fixes his collar) Wish to hell I did. (He gives her a few bills)

CUT TO:

[EXT. CHICAGO-NIGHT]

(Pan over of Chicago nightlife.)

(Micheal walks through his high rise apartment to a large wall covered in newspaper clippings and starts tearing them down, revealing a large window. He puts the articles into a box. Then Micheal takes the hard drive chip from his computer and walks out onto the balcony. Giving a sigh, he heaves it into the river.)

CUT TO:

[EXT. CHICAGO SAVINGS BANK-DAY]

CUT TO:

[INT.MAIN AREA OF THE BANK-DAY]

Micheal: (Fires three rounds into the air, then points the gun at the clerk) The vault. Open it.

Clerk: We can’t. The branch manager’s not here.

Micheal: (Looks away and back at her.) Where is he?

Clerk: (She has the side of her head glued to the counter.) It’s lunchtime, he’s at Whitecastle.

Micheal: (Surprised) Whitecastle?

Clerk: It’s a fast food restaurant that serves those little square burgers.

Micheal: I know what it is. (Fires another two rounds in to the air, then points the gun back at her.) I’m not playing games.

Clerk: Sir, you have half a million in your bag already. Don’t you think it would be better…?

(Police sirens wail right outside. Micheal puts his hands up, closes his eyes and takes a deep breath. When he opens them again he’s smiling slightly and turns.)

Police Officer: This is the police, you are completely surrounded.

CUT TO:

[EXT. SAVINGS BANK-DAY]

(Police Officers are stationed behind their vehicles, pointing guns at the bank entrance.)

Police Officer: Put down your weapon.

CUT BACK TO:

[INT. MAIN AREA OF THE BANK-DAY]

(Micheal pulls another gun from its holster, raises both hands into the air and drops them.)

COLD CUT TO:

[INT. COURTROOM-DAY]

Judge: Rarely in the case of armed robbery do we hear a plea of no contest. Are you sure about this, Mr.Scofield?

Micheal: (Sitting in the defendant’s chair) I’m sure Your Honor.

Veronica: You Honor, we’d like to recess if we could, me client’s a bit confused at the moment.

Micheal: I’m not Your Honor. (Veronica looks at him.)

Veronica: He is Your Honor. (They both look at each other.)

Judge: Perhaps you should heed your representations advice; take some time to consider your response.

Micheal: I’ve already done that Your Honor. (Micheal and Veronica look at each other again. Veronica looks confused. Micheal looks back to the judge.)

Judge: I’ll retire to my chambers to determine sentencing. Courts recessed until one thirty.

(People move to get up and Micheal looks at a kid sitting in the public benches. The bailiff gently nudges Micheal to get up and Veronica starts collecting her things.)

LJ: (Standing) Uncle Mike

Micheal: I didn’t want you to come. (He gets cuffed.) Go home LJ. (As he gets taken away) I didn’t want you to see this.

(He is escorted from the courtroom, leaving LJ, who lingers, looking disappointed.)

CUT TO:

[INT. HOLDING CELLS-DAY]

(Micheal is being led to his cell, with Veronica in tow.)

Micheal: He’s not going to take this well.

Veronica: Can you blame him? He’s beginning to get the idea that anybody he attaches himself to is going to end up in jail. And he’s not the only one who’s starting to feel that way. (She moves up to the bars.) Can you leave us alone for a moment?

Bailiff: (Locks up Michael’s cell) One minute.

Veronica: Don’t you understand. You just put the book in that woman’s hand and she’s going to lob it at you like a grenade. Justice and punishment are the same thing to her.

Micheal: I know.

Veronica: Then will you please tell me what’s going through your head?

Micheal: We’ve been over this.

Veronica: I’ve known you my entire life. You don’t have a violent bone in your body and I know you didn’t need the money.

(Micheal hasn’t really been looking at her, but now he turns to face her.)

Micheal: Veronica.

Veronica: Let me help you.

Micheal: You’ve been good to me, my whole life. But you gotta let me deal with this, okay?

CUT TO:

[INT. COURTROOM-DAY]

Judge: Given your lack of prior criminal record I am inclined towards probation. However the fact that you discharged a deadly weapon during the commission of the crime suggests malice to me, for that reason I find it incumbent that you see the inside of a prison Mr. Scofield. It says here that you’ve requested to be incarcerated somewhere near your home here in Chicago. I’m willing to honor that. The closest level one facility-

Veronica: (Having varying emotional phases throughout this speech, protests) Level one! That’s maximum security, Your Honor.

Judge: I would ask counsel to refrain from interrupting me. (She looks back to Micheal.) As I was saying, the closest level one facility would be Fox River State Penitentiary. As for the term of your sentence, I’m setting it at five years; you’ll be eligible for parole in half that time. Sentence to be carried out immediately.

(Zoom in on Michaels face, as the gavel sounds the end of sentencing.)

CUT TO:

[EXT. FOX RIVER STATE PENITENTIARY-JOLIET, ILLINOIS-DAY]

(Pan over the Penitentiary.)

CUT TO:

[INT. PRISON PROCESSING AREA-DAY]

Officer: Okay people, step inside the door. Keep the line moving. Let’s go. We ain’t got all day to get this done. Keep it moving. Move it.

Captain Bellick: Name and back number.

Micheal: Scofield, Micheal. 94941.

Captain Bellick: You a religious man Scofield?

Michael: Never really thought about it.

Captain Bellick: Good, because the ten commandments don’t mean a box of piss in here. We got two commandments and two only. The first commandment is you’ve got nothing coming.

Michael: What’s the second commandment?

Captain Bellick: See commandment number one.

Michael: (Smirks and looks away) Gotcha.

Captain Bellick: You talking out the side of your neck?

Michael: (Questioningly) Come again?

Captain Bellick: I said are you being a smartass?

Michael: (Deadpan) Just tryin to fly low, avoid the radar, boss.  Do my time and get out.

Captain Bellick: (Menacingly) There isn’t any flying under my radar.

Michael: Good to know.

(Close up and Michael’s medical sheet. “Type 1 Diabetes.”)

CUT TO:

[INT. CELL BLOCK-DAY]

Black Prisoner: (As a guard walks by) Hey, can a brother get some air conditioning up in here?

(Prisoners are trading items, shadow boxing, etc. Michael looks on with subdued interest.)

Black Prisoner: (Shouts from a cell across the way.) Yo fish, what you lookin at? You’re kinda pretty to be up in here.

(A line of prisoners walks through the bottom deck, coming in from outside.)

Sucre: I suggest you take a seat fish. (Flipping through a magazine.) Ain’t nothing to do up in here but serve time and nobody gonna serve it for you.

(One of the prisoners gets shanked and falls. The line melts away and his moans can be heard over the increasing riot.)

Welcome to Prisonyland fish.

(Zoom out to see the entire cell block.)

CUT TO:

[INT. VERONICA’S LIVING ROOM-NIGHT]

(Veronica leans against the window, her fiancée pads down the stairs and comes to a halt at the bottom of the stairs.)

Sebastian: You wanna talk about it?

Veronica: Eh, it’s not worth talking about.

Sebastian: If it’s what keeping you up it is.

Veronica: It’s, just. It’s nothing. Michael’s case.

Sebastian: You did the best you could.

Veronica: Yeah, but he didn’t. He just sot of rolled over. Didn’t put up a fight. It’s not like him.

(Sebastian looks down and Veronica rolls her eyes.)

I’m sorry; I shouldn’t be talking about him.

Sebastian: Hey, if it’s on your mind, it’s on your mind right? Goodnight.

(He goes back upstairs and Veronica looks out the window.)

CUT TO:

[EXT. PRISON-DAY]

(Close up on a sign “Sit down when shots are fired.” Shots of prisoners coming in.)

Sucre: (Gestures to different areas.) Berendo’s got the hoops. Artenio’s got the bleachers. Woods got the weight pile and the CEO’s got the rest. I’m telling ya, the guards are the dirtiest gang in this whole place. The only thing seperatin us from them is the badge.

Michael: Who’s the pet lover?

Sucre: He’ll deny it but he’s D.B. Cooper, parachuted out of a plane thirty years ago with one and a half million in cash.

Michael: Doesn’t look like the type.

Sucre: Who does? (His attention turns.) Hey what up wholesale. You okay?

Friend: Call me greater later. What you doin with this fish man?

Sucre: (Boasting) My new cellie, Wholesale got a wired out of compensary. Anything you want, he can get it for you.

Friend: You keep handin out my jacket, I’m gonna bust your grape.

Sucre: Man you couldn’t bust a grape or nothing with a pair of cleats.

(Michael walks away, tuning them out. He focuses on the midpoint between two yellow fire hydrants and a spray of steam. Michael drops his magazine over the sewer grate and bends down, going through the motions to pick it up. Instead, he slides it between the slats, where it drops into the dirty water.)

Michael: (Getting up.) I’m lookin for someone. (Looks at them.) Lincoln Burrows.

Friend: Link the Sink.

Michael: (Walking back over to them.) Is that what they’re calling him now?

Friend: Yeah, isn’t he as in he’ll come at you with everything but the kitchen sink. Snowflake.

Michael: Where can I find him?

(Shot of Lincoln crouching on the other side of the chain linked fence. Michael and Sucre lean on the fence.)

Sucre: Man killed the Vice President’s brother. In a month he’s getting the chair, which means no one up this river is more dangerous than him cause he’s got nothin to lose now. What are they going to do? Kill him twice?

Michael: Is there a way I can get to him?

Sucre: (Makes a guttural no sound.) The only time those boys get out is for chapel and P.I.

Michael: (Calmly) P.I. What’s that?

Sucre: Prison Industry. The guys that get along get to work painting, scrapping, making mattresses u name it. I wouldn’t get excited though if I were you fish. You ain’t sniffin none of P.I.

Michael: Why’s that?

Sucre: Cause John Abruzzi runs it. (Nods off into the distance.)

Michael: John Abruzzi, John Abruzzi?

Sucre: (Confirming) John Abruzzi, John Abruzzi. Why do you want to see Burrows so bad anyways?

(Close shot of Michaels face.)

Michael: Because he’s my brother.

(Sucre gives him a second glance as Michael moves away from the fence.)

(Shot travels quickly through the underground tunnel.)                               (Commercial Set.)

COLD OPEN TO:

[INT. MICHAEL’S CELL-DAY]

(Michael is folding an origami duck. Shot pans up to close in on Michael’s somber face.)

CUT TO:

[INT. FOX RIVER VISITING AREA.-DAY]

Lincoln: They denied the motion.

Michael: So do it again.

Lincoln: I can’t. They set the date for May 11. That’s the day man. That’s the day that uh…u know they uh…execute.

(Michael is very solemn.)

Michael: I know. (Takes a deep breath and looks away.)

Lincoln: I didn’t kill that man Michael.

Michael: (Looking sickened) The evidence says you did.

Lincoln: I don’t care what the evidence says, I didn’t kill that man.

Michael: (Tears threatening to pour down, fiercely.) Swear to me.

Lincoln: (Looking him straight in the eye.) I swear to you Michael.

Michael: (Nods, regaining some control.) But how could they get it wrong then. The courts, the appeals.

Lincoln: Don’t know, don’t know. All I keep thinking looking back on it is that I was set up. And whoever it was who set me up wants me in the ground as quick as possible.

CUT BACK TO:

[INT. MICHAEL’S CELL]

(Shot stays on Michael’s face.)

Sucre: What’s another word for love?

Michael: What’s the context? (Looking at him from the cell door.)

Sucre: Oh you know, the I love you so much I ain’t never knockin over another liquor store again context. Except, you know…but classy.

Michael: (Amused) Hmmmm.

Sucre: I’m proposin to my girlfriend if you gotta know.  

Michael: (Skeptically) In a letter?

Sucre: You gotta better way.

Michael: Face to face works pretty good.

Sucre: (Turning to look at Michael.) This place ain’t exactly the romantic spot. I’m gonna have her get on the Stanton Island ferry. Then once she’s near the Empire State building she opens the letter. (Gets excited and snaps his fingers.) It’s almost like being there. (Michael smiles bemusedly at him.) Except for the fact that I won’t be there. (Turns back to the letter.)

Michael: (Looking out again.) Try passion.

Sucre: Oh passion, that’s dope. (Sounds it out.) How do you spell that? P-a-s-h.

Michael: (Shakes his head solemnly from the door.) Uhu.

CUT TO:

[EXT. CHICAGO ALLEYWAY-DAY]

(Two boys are riding through an alley and they come to a stop.)

Friend: Hey LJ hold up.

LJ: Hold up?

Friend: I don’t know if I can go through with this.

LJ: (Looks at him reassuringly.) Everything’s going to be fine. Trust me. (Rings the doorbell.)

(The door opens and a man strides out to his car.)

Man: Do we understand each other then? Friday. Not Saturday. Not Sunday, but Friday.

LJ: (Putting his backpack on after putting the marijuana in it.) Totally understand.

Man: I don’t know hundreds. I don’t want fives. I don’t want ones.

LJ: I know, I know. Tens and twenties only.

(The two kids get back on their bikes and ride down the alley. Close up on a police officer in his car, poised with his radio in his hand.)

Police Officer: It’s on.

(As they reach the mouth of the alley a police car pulls up, cutting off the entrance of the alley. They drop their bikes and turn to run in the opposite direction just as another cop car pulls up at the other end.)

Police Officer: Stop! Police!

(The boys look defeated.)

CUT TO:

[EXT. PRISON YARD SQUARE-DAY]

 (Shot of CEO tower, pan down to Michael walking over to a man playing poker.)

Michael: Abruzzi? I need you to hire a P.I. (Abruzzi slaps a card down.)

Abruzzi: (Not bothering to look at him.) Beat it.

Michael: Maybe you oughta hear what I gotta say.

Abruzzi: You got nothing I want.

Michael: (Placing an origami duck in front of him.) Wouldn’t be too sure about that.

Abruzzi: (Laughs) My mistake. Just what I need, a duck.

Michael: P.I. Abruzzi. I might just be of more assistance than you think.

(Abruzzi looks at him for the first time. His boys start to stand.)

Michael: (Backing up.) Mull it over. (Looking away and back.) Come and find me when you’re ready to talk.

(With his hands up, he turns and leaves.)

CUT TO:

[INT. CHICAGO BUTCHERY-DAY]

Maggio: Alright guys, lets pick it up. I wanna get home tonight.

(A man walks in.)

Tsili: Maggio. (Nods for Maggio to a small desk and places some papers onto them.)

Maggio: Yeah so?

Tisili: That’s the son of a bitch who fingered Abruzzi.

Maggio: Fibonacci. (Looks closer, picking up the photo.) Thought that poke was gone. Clever.

Tisili: Evidently somebody found him.

Maggio: Somebody messin with us?

Tisili: This you’re not going to believe.

(Hands Maggio a manila envelope, which Maggio looks inside of.)

CUT TO:

[INT. FOX RIVER INFIRMARY-DAY]

(Close shot of a needle poking into a heavily tattooed arm.)

Dr.Tancredi: Tattoo looks fresh. Hold that. (Gives him the gauze to apply pressure.) I guess being a diabetic you don’t mind needles.

Michael: (Changing the subject.) I’m Michael bt the way.

Dr.Tancredi: Scofield. I read your report.

Michael: And you are?

Dr.Tancredi: (Looks at him.) Dr.Tancredi will do. 

Michael: Tancredi like the governor. Your not related are you? (No response.) Hmmm. (Looks away and back.) Wouldn’t expect to find the daughter of frontier Frank working in a prison, as a doctor no less.

(Dr.Tancredi looks up, a fleeting look of being uncomfortable washes across her face.)

Dr.Tancredi: I believe in being a part of the solution, not the problem.

Michael: Hmmm. Be the change that you want to see in the world.

(The comment strikes her; he looks at her and smiles.)

What?

Dr.Tancredi: (Shaking her head) Nothing. That was just my senior grade quote.

Michael: (Playful disbelief) That was you? This whole time I was thinking it was Ghandi.

(That gets a laugh.)

Dr.Tancredi: Very funny. Sit tight. Put direct pressure on that. I’ll be back in a second.

(She gets up and leaves the room. Michael watches her leave then removes the gauze and takes another origami duck out of his shirt pocket. He goes over to the corner of the room and slips it between the slats of the grate. Quickly he returns to his seat as Dr.Tancredi reenters.)

Michael: (Applying pressure.) So how do we play this? You hook me up with a three week supply?

Dr.Tancredi: Nice try. No hypos on the floor.

(They are both smiling.)

Michael: I’m the farthest thing from a junkie, trust me.

Dr.Tancredi: I got news for you Michael, trust me means absolutely nothing inside these walls. The only way you’ll get that Insulin is if I’m the one administering it.

Michael: Guess we’ll be seeing a lot of each other then.

Dr.Tancredi: (Trying to stay professional with an easy smile.) I guess so.

CUT TO:

[INT.PRISON DRAIN-DAY]

(Zoom along the drain to follow the origami duck.)

CUT TO:

[EXT. SECRET SERVICE HEADQUARTERS, WASHINGTON D.C.-DAY]

CUT TO:

[INT. AGENT KELLERMAN’S OFFICE-DAY]

Agent Hale enters and closes the door.

Hale: We’re all clear on the Burrows execution.

Kellerman: Good.

Hale: Except for one thing. Bishop McMurrow is not in the fold.

(Kellerman doesn’t respond.)

He’s got a lot of influence with the governor. They went to prep school together.

(Kellerman gives him a disdained look.)

Look, the closer this thing gets, the more I’m worried that the bottom is going to fall out of this whole thing.

(Kellerman sighs and leans back in his chair, pondering.)

Kellerman: Well, maybe it’s time that we paid a visit with the good Bishop. (Hale nods uncertainly.) Look, in a month, it’ll all be over.

CUT TO:

[INT. FOX RIVER CHAPEL-DAY]

Chaplain: The son of man must be delivered into the hands of sinners and be crucified. (Shot of Lincoln sitting in a pew.) And on the third day rise again. And they remembered his words and so should you. Good day gentlemen, may God be with you.

(The prisoners all rise in the motions of leaving the Chapel. Lincoln stands awkwardly in all his chains and turns into the pew aisle where he comes face to face with Michael.)

Lincoln: (Disbelief) Michael?

(There is a long look shared between them before Lincoln steps closer.)Why?

Michael: (Stepping forward to meet him.) I’m getting you out.

CO: Burrows. Roll it up. Happy hours over.

Lincoln: (Ignoring) That’s impossible.

Michael: Not if you designed the place it isn’t.

(He smiles and walks away. Shot goes quickly through the tunnels before going to Commercial set.)

COLD OPEN TO:

[INT. VERONICA’S LIVING ROOM-DAY]

(Close up on wedding invitations.)

Veronica (V.O.): Too formal.

(Shot pulls out to show Veronica and Sebastian picking out invitations.)

Too greeting card.

Sebastian: Well, we gotta make decision sooner or later you know.

Veronica: We have time.

Sebastian: We don’t actually. (Pushes a lock of hair off her face.) I mean at some point we have to pull the trigger on this thing.

Veronica: I don’t want to rush this. We’re only going to do this once. We have to get it right.

(Sebastian moves the selection book off their laps and settles in for a serious conversation.)

Sebastian: Can I ask you something?

Veronica: Of course.

Sebastian: Are you putting this off?

Veronica: What do you mean?

Sebastian: I mean, are you having second thoughts?

Veronica: No. Honey, no, I’m not.

Sebastian: I don’t know. I can’t help thinking that this is about-

Veronica: (Cuts him off quickly) It’s not. I love you and I wanna be your wife. (They kiss)

CUT TO:

[INT. CELL BLOCK/MICHAEL’S CELL]

Sucre: Passion? What were you thinking?

Michael: Hey. You went for it.

Sucre: She probably thinks I went sissy up in here. You know, got more than one syllable, too much talking. (Michael smiles throughout this.) That’s me from now on. One syllable. Yes, no, love, hate, love.

Michael: Give it time.

Sucre: Are you kidding me? I proposed to her. That doesn’t take time. Si or no. One syllable man. She’s supposed to come around for a conjugal on Tuesday. She‘s always callin me beforehand, letting me know she’s coming. This time man, I ain’t heard a peep. You spooked her. (Michael smiles, amused.)

CO: Scofield, get it together. Pope wants to see you.

Sucre: Oh. Not good fish. No one gets an audience with the Pope. Not unless he’s real interested in what you got going on.

CUT TO:

[EXT. ADMINISTRATIVE BUILDING-DAY]

Pope (V.O.): Top of your class at Loyola. Magna Cum Laude in fact. (Pope takes off his glasses and looks at Michael.) I can’t help wondering what a man with your credentials is doing in a place like this.

Michael: Took a wrong turn a few months back I guess.

Pope: You make it sound like a traffic infraction. Like all you did was turn the wrong way up a one way street.

Michael: Everyone turns up one sooner or later.

(Pope comes around the desk and stands in front of Michael.)

Pope: The reason that I called you here. I noticed in your file under occupation you put down unemployed. That’s not true now is it? (Sits on the edge of the desk.) I know you’re a structural engineer Scofield.

(Close up on a model of the Taj Mahal. Pan around the model to rest on Michael and Pope looking at it.)

Pope: Shah Jahan built the Taj Mahal as a monument to his undying love for his wife. My wife is quite fond of the story. It appeals to the romantic side of her. (Turning to Michael) Being married to someone on corrections, it’s a terrible job, wouldn’t wish it on anybody. And yet, in thirty-nine years my wife has never complained and the worst part is I’ve never thanked her. So because I couldn’t say it I thought, you know, I could build it. In June, it’s our fortieth anniversary. Well here, look. (They bend down to look into the base of the structure.) The problem is, I build anymore and it’s all going to come down like a house of cards. That’s where I was hoping you could be of assistance. For the favor, I could offer you three days of work a week in here and it’ll keep you off the yard.

(Michael thinks about it and stands, Pope follows suit.)

Michael: I can’t do it.

Pope: Son, it’s better for me to owe you one in here than it is for you to owe me one I can promise you that.

 Michael: I’ll have to take my chances.

Pope: Then we’re through here. Guard!

CUT TO:

[INT. LJ’S KITCHEN-DAY]

Lisa: Two pounds of pot! What were you trying to do? Set a new record? (LJ smiles at that.) It’s not funny LJ; you could be going to jail. Now it’s pretty obvious to me that you need some guidance.

(Her new husband comes into the kitchen.)

Adrian: (Picks up his meal and gives her a kiss.) Hey thanks.

LJ: From who? Old daddy Warbucks.

Lisa: Give him a chance, he’s a good man.

LJ: We got nothing in common.

Lisa: Oh! Where is this all coming from LJ? Last semester you were getting straight A’s and now… (Realizing) It’s your father isn’t it?

LJ: I don’t have a father.

Lisa: It wasn’t immaculate conception honey, trust me. Maybe it’s time we went and saw him. (She starts tidying up.)

LJ: (Alarmed) Mom. Mom. Don’t.

Lisa: I’m about as excited as you by the prospect, but something’s gotta give. You have too much potential to be screwing up your life like this.

CUT TO:

[INT. FOX RIVER VISITING AREA-DAY]

(Veronica and Michael are sitting at a small round table.)

Veronica: And what if they sent you to Taylorville, Marion and not here?

Michael: I could be doing the same thing I’m doing here. (Makes a joke out of it.) Eatin jello, drinkin Kool-Aid.

Veronica: I know what you’re doing! It’s not the luck of the draw that you’re in here with Lincoln. You forget that, I know you. Both of you. You two have the most dysfunctional idea of love I’ve ever seen. (Michael looks down.) What, he beats you up to keep you off the streets and you end up in Fox River with him. To what? To save him? (There’s tension now.) I deserve to know. I loved him as much as you did.

Michael: Past tense for you maybe, not me.

Veronica: I gave him a shot when I got back from college, I did. Even with everything that was going on with him, I tried to make it work. And he threw it all away.

Michael: You ever think that he was hurt that you left in the first place?

Veronica: Don’t do this. Whatever you’re doing, don’t do it. There’s a better way. I’m already appealing your case.

Michael: I told you to leave that alone.

Veronica: I’ve gotten in touch with the Diesis about Lincoln and the bishop may be able to help.

Michael: (Evenly, cutting her off.) That won’t stop it, it’ll only delay it. You wanna do something, you find out who’s trying to bury him.

Veronica: Nobody’s trying to. The evidence was all there.

Michael: The evidence was cooked.

CO: Visiting hours are over.

(They get up and embrace tightly.)

Veronica: Take care of yourself.

Michael: Somebody wants him dead Veronica. Something more is going on here.

(They break apart.)

Veronica: This is desperation Michael, grabbing at straws.

Michael: Maybe. But I can’t watch him die. I won’t do that.

(She leaves him standing by their little table.)

CUT TO:

[INT. FOX RIVER VISIT EXITING AREA-DAY]

(Lincoln comes in from outside and sees on the other side of the bars Veronica, signing out and leaving.)

CUT TO:

[EXT. BISHOP MCMURROWS HOUSE-DAY]

(Two agents knock on his door. The Bishop answers.)

Bishop McMurrow: Gentlemen.

CUT TO:

[INT. BISHOPS STUDY-DAY]

Bishop McMurrow: What is it about the Burrows situation that I can help you with.

Kellerman: It’s our understanding that you have influence with the governor.

Bishop McMurrow: I wouldn’t call it great or influence. We’re friends.

Kellerman: It’s also our understanding that you’re opposed to the death penalty.

Bishop McMurrow: I’m a man of God, how could I not be?

Kellerman: In this case, we’re hoping you’ll suspend that position, at least temporarily.

Bishop McMurrow: If an inmate appeals to me for intervention, how can I turn my back on him?

Kellerman: You have a habit of answering a question with a question.

Bishop McMurrow: And you have a way of asking questions that beg more questions.

Kellerman: (Getting irritated.) Are you saying you won’t do it?

Bishop McMurrow: I’m not a man to equivocate.

Kellerman: You’re what, sixty two years old now Your Excellency?

Bishop McMurrow: That’s correct.

Kellerman: I assume then that you would be well versed in how our country’s tax system works. Taking personal capital gains under the church tax shelter. That would be fraud, wouldn’t it Your Excellency?

Bishop McMurrow: I will not be cowed into forsaking my beliefs. Not by you or anyone else.

Kellerman: Admirable. (Gets up.) Good day Your Excellency.

Bishop McMurrow: (Stands up too) Mr. Kellerman, what is it about this case that the secret service is so interested in?

Kellerman: He killed the Vice President’s brother. (He walks out.)

(Close up on the Bishops face.)

CUT TO:

[EXT. PRISON YARD-DAY]

Abruzzi: (On the phone) What are you saying?

Maggio: You heard me. Someone found Fibonacci. I’m looking at the photo right now. This son of a bitch has a beard, sunglasses. Witness protection file.

Abruzzi: Who is this someone?

Maggio: There was no return address on the envelope. Just this folded up bird made of paper.

Abruzzi: (Realizing) Like origami?

Maggio: Yeah. Like that, origami.

(Abruzzi hangs up the phone. Shot goes to Michael, who looks down at the grate with a soggy magazine in it. He turns to find “D.B Cooper” looking at him. D.B looks away but Michael goes over and sits down.)

Michael: (Looks straight ahead) Your Charles S. Moreland right?

Moreland: Do I know you?

Michael: Knew your wife before she passed.

Moreland: You knew Marla?

Michael: (Looking at him.) You mean Ann?

Moreland: How’d you know her?

Michael: We taught in Boston together.

Moreland: East Farmington.

Michael: You mean West Wilmington.

Moreland: (Smiles and looks at him.) No more tests, promise. Seems you know everything about me. Who are you?

Michael: Michael Scofield. How’d you get it in here?

Moreland: (Strokes the cat.) First of all, she’s not an it. She’s Marilyn. And she’s a grandfather, back in the days when prisoners were allowed a creature comfort or two.

Michael: Heard you were D.B Cooper.

Moreland: Every new fish comes in here and the first thing they hear is that Charles West Moreland is D.B. Cooper. I tell you like I tell them. You want the Cooper story, I can’t give it to you, cause I’m not him.

Michael: That’s too bad. Sort of wished it was. Man’s a legend.

Moreland: Nowhere near as much as I wish it were true my friend. I’d have one million in cash waiting for me on the outside.

(Abruzzi walks up with his boys.)

I’d put some grass between them if I were you. (He gets up and leaves.)

Michael: You know, this would go a whole lot easier it you would just hire me.

Abruzzi: What’s this all about?

Michael; Say you were able to get outside there walls, would you have the people in place to help you disappear forever?

Abruzzi: Why do you care?

Michael: Just curious.

Abruzzi: Where’s Fibonacci?

Michael: That’s not the way it works.

(Abruzzi stares at him for a few long moments before he turns away. His boys step forward and Michael stands up.)

Michael: They com at me John and I’m coming after you.

Abruzzi: I doubt it.

(One Abruzzi’s boys gut punches Michael, who immediately retaliates with a lunging punch into Abruzzi’s jaw. He gets shoved into the ground, face first and two men take turns beating him until a guard tower CEO shoots bullets around the gathering group of brawling men.)

CUT TO:

[INT. POPE’S OFFICE-DAY]

Pope: I misjudged you Scofield; I didn’t think you were the agitating type. Behavior like that is not tolerated in my prison. Ninety days in the shoe, that’ll convince you of that.

Michael: Ninety days?

Pope: That’s right.

(Michael steps forward and looks at Pope’s desk calendar. April 11.)

Something you want to say?

Michael: (Tries to play his card right.) It’s just…I’m not of much value to you in the shoe.

Pope: Value?

Michael: Hmmm. The Taj. It’d be a shame for the eighth wonder of the world to collapse because the stress isn’t properly propagated.

Pope: (Worried) Properly propagated?

Michael: Properly propagated. The joints are overloaded. They won’t provide anywhere neat the strength the completed structure will need.

(Pope walks over to Michael.)

Pope: How much work are we talking about?

Michael: You want it by when? In June?

Pope: Yes.

Michael: Then we’d better get started. Wouldn’t you say?

CUT TO:

[INT. BISHOP MCMURROWS BEDROOM-NIGHT]

(Zoom in slowly on the sleeping Bishop. A shadow can be seen behind a cross on his nightstand. A creak is heard and that wakes the Bishop up.)

Bishop McMurrow: Who’s there?

(He slowly sits up in bed and disbelief etches across his face. He sees the barrel of a silencer gun which fires. Commercial Set.)

COLD OPEN TO:

[INT. VERONICA’S OFFICE-DAY]

Colleague: Bishop McMurrow was killed last night. Someone shot him while he was sleeping. I thought you’d want to know.

Veronica: (Blown away) Thanks. (Leans back in her chair, looking at a circled date on her calendar.) Michael was right.

(She goes to a filing cabinet and pulls out the Lincoln Burrows vs the State of Illinois file.

CUT TO:

[INT. FOX RIVER DEATH ROW-DAY]

(A guard walks down the hall to Lincoln’s cell.)

CUT TO:

[INT. FOX RIVER VISITING AREA-DAY]

 (Lincoln walks up to the booth to see his ex-wife and LJ waiting there.)

Lisa: He was arrested.

Lincoln: For what?

Lisa: Possession of marijuana. I figured he could some fatherly advice before-

Lincoln: He’s gone forever.

Lisa: I didn’t mean that.

Lincoln: (Sincerely) I know you didn’t. (He nods at her and she walks off.) So. (They both sit down.) Dope, huh? Usin or dealin?

LJ: What’s the difference?

Lincoln: Then what, you think it gives you street cred? You got a piece of the good life. Take advantage.

LJ: Look I get it okay, the whole thing. She drags me in here; you give me a big speech. I walk out a changed man. Straight A’s, Harvard, grow up and become a dentist.

Lincoln: (Pained) It’s better than being in here. You gotta realize who’s getting punished when your doing what your doing. You think its me, it’s you. I did the same thing, punish the old man for leaving and look where it got me. I’m not asking you to love me. I already screwed up that chance long ago. I’m asking you to love yourself. (Throughout this LJ’s been trying to silently tune him out.) So put the brakes on this thing.

LJ: (Brushing everything off.) So that’s what fatherly advice is like. (He gets up.)

Lincoln: What are you doin?

LJ:  I got homework.

Lincoln: They’re putting me to death LJ. In a month’s time I’ll be dead, you get that?

LJ: (Disgusted) You’re already dead to me. (Walks off.)

CUT TO:

[INT. CONJUGAL ROOM-DAY]

(Sucre has been sitting on the bed, worried, Spanish music playing the background.

Sucre: (Gets up) Oh no! (He goes to the door, which opens, revealing a woman.)

Maricruz: (Smiling) Yes!

Sucre: What you mean yes, yes?

Maricruz: Yes, yes.

Sucre: Yes! (They grab each other. Kissing.)

Maricruz: Wait, there’s just one thing.

Sucre: Of course. (He kisses her.)

Maricruz: Mama wants to wait until you get out.

Sucre: Of course mama. (He kisses her again.)

Maricruz: And we have to get married in a church.

Sucre: Okay. (He kisses her again.)

Maricruz: A Catholic church.

Sucre: (Undoing her shirt) Wouldn’t want to mess with Catholic rules would we?

(They fall onto the bed.)

CUT TO:

[INT. FOX RIVER INFIRMARY-DAY]

Dr. Tancredi: You went to Leola? (Plops into her rolly chair.)

Michael: (Perched on the examining table.) You’ve been checking up on me.

Dr. Tancredi: I like to get to know my patients. I went to North Western. Graduated a year after you did.

Michael: Maybe we met before. You know, drunk out at a bar somewhere.

Dr. Tancredi: I would have remembered.

Michael: Is that a compliment?

Dr. Tancredi: No. Hmm.

Michael: What?

Dr. Tancredi: Your blood glucose is at fifty milligrams per deciliter. Your body’s reacting to the insulin as though your not a diabetic. Are you sure it’s Type 1 Diabetes you got.

Michael: Ever since I was a little kid.

Dr. Tancredi: Alright. Not experiencing any tingling sensations, cold sweats?

(Michael shakes his head and is saved by the phone. He gets and walks over to the barred window, looking outside. He notices his right hand is shaking and smoothes his left thumb over the palm. Dr. Tancredi gets off the phone.)

I’d like to run some tests the next time your in. The last thing I want is to be administering insulin to a man who doesn’t.

Michael: (Feigning a smile.) Yeah, sure.

Dr. Tancredi: okay.

(Michael looks worried.)

CUT TO:

[INT. FOX RIVER CONJUGAL ROOM-DAY]

(Maricruz and Sucre are getting their clothes back on after their visit.)

Sucre: So how’d did you get here, by the way?

Maricruz: O h, you know (Pulls a boot on.)

Sucre: No I don’t. That’s why I asked.

Maricruz: You know. Hector.

Sucre: WHAT?

Maricruz: I didn’t have any money for the bus, so he offered me a ride, he was really sweet.

(Sucre stands up, upset.)

Honey, he’s just a friend.

Sucre: No, he’s not just a friend. I know Hector. I know men. I know women. I know women and men can’t be friends. A guy doesn’t drive a girl five hundred miles across the state line because he wants to be friends.

CO: Casanova, wrap it up.

Maricruz: Hey, you got nothing to worry about. (She goes over to him.) It’s you I’m marrying. (She kisses him.)

Sucre: It’s not you I’m worried about. (He kisses her.)

Maricruz: Sixteen more months. (They kiss again and she leaves.) I love you.

CUT TO:

[EXT. PRISON YARD-DAY]

(Transaction of goods passes between two black inmates.)

Michael: Sucre tells me you’re the local pharmacy.

(Man looks behind Michael at Sucre.)

C-Note: What you need man?

Michael: Pugnac.

C-Note: I only speak in English, white boy.

Michael: It’s an insulin blocker. Standard over-the-counter variety. You can get it at a pharmacy.

C-Note: You can get it at medical then.

Michael: Only I can’t get it at medical.

C-Note: Why not?

Michael: (Mischievously) Because they’re already giving me insulin shots.

(They share a laugh.)

C-Note: Your one mixed up cracker you know that?

Michael: Can you get it for me or not?

C-Note: Only if you tell why is it you want to keep going back up to medical to get an insulin shot for which you don’t need.

Michael: I like the ambiance. (He gives C-Note a knowing smile.)

C-Note: (Playing along.) Uhuh.

Michael: Are we in business? (Holds out a folded bill, discreetly.)

(C-Note takes it and walks off. Michael watches him go then walks off in the opposite direction.)

CUT TO:

[INT. MICHAEL’S CELL-DAY]

CO: Scofield! I don’t know what you did but Abruzzi wanted me to give you this P.I. card. Congratulations, you just joined the ranks of the employed.

(Michael looks at the card, quietly pleased.)

CUT TO:

[INT. FOX RIVER ADMINISTRATIVE HALLWAY-DAY]

(Lincoln is whitewashing a wall. The shot pulls back to show Michael painting a wall not fifteen feet away.)

Abruzzi: (Into his ear) Kudos fish, you got spine.

CO: Alright cons. Break it down.

(The inmates move and pick up their materials.)

Lincoln: Saw Veronica came by yesterday. Still engaged to that guy?

(Hands his supplies to the CO, Michael does the same.)

Michael: Yup.

Lincoln: That could have been me.

Michael: If you hadn’t self destructed.

(Lincoln looks at him sharply.)

Lincoln: You think I meant to knock up Lisa Richs? I was just being stupid with her. Shouldn’t have pushed here away though.

Michael: You pushed everyone away. (Michael gives him a look and Lincoln gets it.)

Lincoln: I’m an anchor; all I’ll do is drag him down with me. (He walks away to change.)

Man: Why’d you hire him?

Abruzzi: Keep your friends close and your enemies closer. (He watches Michael sit on a bench.)

Lincoln: (Sitting down beside him.) You mean what you said earlier?

Michael: I’m not here on a vacation, trust me.

Lincoln: Getting outside these walls, that’s just the beginning. You gonna need money.

(Michael looks at Moreland take off his shoes.)

Michael: I’ll have it.

Lincoln: And people on the outside who can help you disappear.

Michael: I’ve already got them. (Looks at Abruzzi in line.) They just don’t know it yet. 

Lincoln: Whatever you got going on, fill me in cause I’m in the dark here.

Michael: Schappelle and Associates got the contract to retro this place in ninety nine. Four million dollar contract, head partner couldn’t crack it, so he subcontracted out. An under the table sort of deal with a former associate. That guy was one of the partners in my firm. Who basically goes through the plan, crossed the t’s, dotted the I’s, grouted the tiles.

(Lincoln confused, thinks for a moment.)

Lincoln: You’ve seen the blueprints.

(Shot widens to expose Michael, shirtless. Tattooed from his collarbone down.) 

Michael: Better than that. I’ve got them on me.

(Lincoln looks, his eyes widening.)

Lincoln: Are you kidding me. Am I supposed to be seeing something?

Michael: Look closer.

(Camera zooms into a torso shot as a detailed outlined blueprint emerges from the tattoo. He turns around and the same thing happens on the other side. Shot zooms into the tattoo reemerging within the walls, finally coming out of the grate in the prison yard with the magazine in it. Camera zooms out until the entire prison complex can be seen from above.)

http://mp3.iciba.com/viewsong-10092.shtml

When I'm in Berlin you're off to London
When I'm in New York you're doing Rome
All those crazy nights we spend together
As voices on the phone
Wishing we could be more telepathic
Tired of the nights I sleep alone
Wishing we could redirect the traffic
And we find ourselves a home
Can you feel the raindrops in the desert
Have you seen the sunrays in the dark
Do you feel my love when I'm not present
Standing by your side while miles apart
Sunshine in the rain
Love is still the same
Sunshine in the rain
Sunshine in the rain
Love is still the same
Sunshine in the rain
Even if we call the highest power
We can only do one town a time
Words are not enough action speaks louder
Second time around
Can you feel the raindrops in the desert
Have you seen the sunrays in the dark
Do you feel my love when I'm not present
Standing by your side while miles apart
Sunshine in the rain
Love is still the same
Sunshine in the rain
Sunshine in the rain
Love is still the same
Sunshine in the rain
Oh oh la la la
Oh oh la la la
When I'm in Berlin you're off to London
When I'm in New York you're doing Rome
All those crazy nights we spend together
As voices on the phone
Can you feel the raindrops in the desert
Have you seen the sunrays in the dark
Do you feel my love when I'm not present
Standing by your side while miles apart
Sunshine in the rain
Love is still the same
Sunshine in the rain
Sunshine in the rain
Love is still the same
Sunshine in the rain

 当我在柏林而你已离开去了伦敦，
当我在纽约时你却在罗马
电话里传来你熟悉的声音让我想起
我们一起曾经度过的那些疯狂的夜晚，
希望我们能彼此心灵感应，
厌倦了孤独无眠的夜晚
希望我们能逆转行程，一起在家中相遇
在沙漠中你能感受到雨滴吗
在黑暗中你曾看到过阳光吗
当我不在你身边时你能否感受到我的爱
即使相隔万里，我的心仍伴你左右。
雨中的阳光，
爱总是不变的

即使我们在电话里用尽全力诉说衷肠，
此刻的我们依然身处不同的城市
再多的言语也不能使你立刻飞到我身边
我只能一遍又一遍的重复。

2008年8月8日，公司汽车起重机装配车间总装和转台流水线试运行，向百年奥运献礼！

在工程机械比较发达的日本和德国流水作业工艺已近成熟，对提升工作效率、加强质量管理、增加企业产能有很大的推进作用。目前，国内行业内先进的流水作业也开始起步，这也预示着中国工程机械行业在进军国际市场的道路上有前进一大步！

    中国加油，北京加油！

愿奥运会圆满成功，愿伟大的祖国更加繁荣昌盛！

    4号到12号的省军区教导大队的封闭训练，让我皮肤黑的发亮，呵呵。现在想起临走前天晚上，在宿舍楼旁边的草坪上教官请我们一连的同志们吃西瓜场景，还比较怀念。也许这是最后一次像学生一样的集体生活，大家还是聊的学校里的故事和隔壁房间漂亮的女生。有些伤感有些欣喜，对往事只能追忆年轻已不再来的伤感，对未来生活向往事业发展渴求的欣喜。那些忧郁的走在落叶纷纷的秋日夕阳里的大学时光、那些迎着晨光朗诵的日子已经远去。。。

    想起延安纯净的安静的蓝天，脸上竟有些微笑。我的最美丽的四年青春啊，撒在了这片火红的革命圣地了。让起那大碗大碗流着辣油的臊子面、棍棍面、掐疙瘩、大烩菜、羊肉剁荞面。。。口水止不住啊。文汇山上不仅有路遥先生的坟冢，还有我们数不清的爱情和浪漫。

    陕北温差很大，是很好的避暑圣地，现在的这时节晚上怕还是要盖被子的。而冬呢，我们说，北国风光千里冰封万里雪飘，好一片童话的世界。

     进入工作岗位就没有那些单纯的透明的日子了。

     从十四号到三十一号，是我在底盘车间轮岗的日子，穿的蓝领工作服，我今天向一同事总结有“五好”，即好饿、好热、好脏、好困、好累。呵呵，要命。不过，我也学到了很多东西，现在我可以将起重机底盘的每一部位名称、如何安装讲的很清楚（我开始对机械一窍不通，已经不错了）。下个月去泉塘工业园，我一年的培训计划才刚刚开始。感谢党和政府感谢公司为我学习的机会！晚上听说她们要和董事长去意大利，好想去！看来更要努力学习了。。。

http://v.youku.com/v_show/id_XMjk3MDY2NjQ=.html 

pretty boy

歌手：m2m     专辑：shades of purple

VERSE 1 I lie awake at night See things in black and white I've only got you inside my mind You know you have made me blind VERSE 2 I lie awake and pray That you will look my way I have all this longing in my heart I knew it right from the start M2M CHORUS Oh my pretty pretty boy I love you Like I never ever loved no one before you Pretty pretty boy of mine Just tell me you love me too Oh my pretty pretty boy I need you Oh my pretty pretty boy I do Let me inside Make me stay right beside you VERSE 3 I used to write your name And sometime I think I hear you call Right from my bedroom wall VERSE 4 You stay a little while And touch me with your smile And what can I say to make you mine To reach out for you in time CHORUS BRIDGE Oh pretty boy Say you love me too CHORUS

http://v.youku.com/v_show/id_XMjY0NjA0NDg=.html（演绎法国绝美爱情）

Je fais des e-mails à tout allure
我全速发了一封e-mail（给你）
Tu me réponds “à toute à l’heure”
你回应我：请不要间断。
Tu mets du rouge sur ta figure
你羞红了脸
Je mets du baume sur mon c?ur
我放下了心

J’espère, j’espère, j’espère oh oui, j’espère
我希望，哦，我希望
C’est mon caractère mmmmm
这是我的印记。
J’espère.
欧，我希望
Comme disait Yoko Ono
象传说的那样
Je vais essayer de retrouver ce mot
我试着重新找到一种言语
D’elle la seule chose qu’on partage en frères, en frères
只有我俩能够分享

On a envie de faire l’amour BB
我们多期望持续我们的爱啊，宝贝
Mais les amours sont diluviennes
但情爱无常，如此珍稀
Parsemées par le temps qui court
在短暂的生命中
Il n’y a pas d’amours qui tiennent
哪里会有可预见的爱情

J’espère, j’espère, j’espère oh oui, j’espère
我希望，哦，我希望
C’est mon caractère mmmmm
这是我的印记。
J’espère.
欧，我希望
Comme disait Yoko Ono
象传说的那样
Je vais essayer de retrouver ce mot
我试着重新找到一种言语
They are the only thing we share, en frères
只有我俩能够分享

Les étoiles qui fuient font la mesure
有那么多消失的星星
Des espèces qui disparaissent
数都数不清


J’espère, j’espère, j’espère oh oui, j’espère
我希望，哦，我希望
C’est mon caractère mmmmm
这是我的印记。
J’espère.
欧，我希望

　 2008年07月11日08:14 　 南方网　 马光远　

从柳传志到杨元庆，联想花了24年时间变身为全球500强

马光远 经济学博士

美国《财富》杂志7月9日公布了2008年全球500强排行榜，沃尔玛以3787.99亿美元年销售额蝉联榜首。中国企业的表现而言，中国内地、香港和台湾上榜企业有35家，比2007年增加了5家。除了中石化以1592.6亿美元的年销售额连续两年杀入前20名以外，这次最大的亮点无疑是联想以167.8亿美元的年销售额排名499位，首次杀入《财富》全球500强。

去年《财富》500强出炉的时候，面对央企中石化首次杀入前20名和联想、海尔、华为等民营企业的再次铩羽而归的悲喜两重天，我在南方都市报的专栏文章中感慨：“《财富》500强与其说是中国企业的骄傲，不如说是中国企业反思的一面镜子，当一个国家杀入500强的清一色都是垄断或者官办企业的时候，我们没有任何喜悦的理由。”2008年经济面临的诸多困难，以及在制度层面既得利益集团日益强化的垄断地位和对竞争性制度变迁的阻却，我对联想等企业近几年杀入《财富》500强并没有抱太大的希望。因此，这次联想入围，确实有点出人意料，尽管排在500强的倒数第二位，但其象征意义，却是值得好好玩味的。

不可否认，500强在某种程度上确实能够代表一个国家的经济实力。比如，作为世界第一经济强国的美国，入围世界500强的企业一直遥遥领先于其他国家，这和美国的经济地位也是相称的。今年受次贷危机的影响，美国经济处于衰退的边缘，入围500强的企业也从去年的162家减至153家，为10多年来最低，这是一个非常值得注意的现象。就这个意义而言，如果说500强真的能够代表一个国家的竞争力的话，那起码说明，在联想杀入500强之前，我们至少还没有培养出哪怕一个完全在市场竞争中成长起来的企业巨头。“激荡三十年”，与杀入世界500强的企业数量的逐年增加的荣光相比，这个尴尬的纪录似乎更让人有刺痛和灼伤感。联想的入围，让我们在纪念改革开放30周年这个伟大的时刻的时候，少了尴尬和缺憾，这样的意义，我觉得是很欣慰的，也算是给这个中国人最值得纪念的时刻一份厚重的献礼。

我曾经想给联想的入围以更多的制度层面的解读。比如，联想不是中字头企业，联想是完全靠残酷的竞争在中关村的战场上浴血杀出来的，联想是高科技企业，联想是非国有企业（我指的实质而言）。我想大家明白，我的良苦用心是制度层面的，我想将联想的成功归功于中国推行的增量式的改革，归功于非国有经济的崛起，归功于垄断的打破，归功于中国科技创新的国家战略。这些都对，又似乎都不对，因为联想只是一个个案，而且是一个并不能拷贝的个案。在数百万的科技企业里，一个孤零零的联想和其余20多个个中字号的垄断企业，不仅不能说明制度的成功，反而更印证了制度在提升非国有企业的市场竞争方面，存在着重大的制度残疾。可以说，联想的单兵入围，从另一个层面更说明了我们并没有为非垄断企业的壮大提供一个和谐的制度支撑体系。我们有“非公36条”，我们有国家创新战略，但这些国策在缺乏操作性的法律机制的情况下只能在和垄断与国有企业的资源争夺中要么沉沦于“原罪”，要么被活活挤掉最后一点存活的空间。所以，最后只有一个联想，杀出重围，成为仅存的硕果和奇迹，而奇迹是不可以复制的。

这样以来，联想的入围，冲淡了思维里短暂的喜悦，而又转换成对中国未来竞争态势的忧患和经济民主的担忧。30年的制度变迁，我们只孕育出一个联想，这是制度的成功还是制度的失败，好像答案不言而喻。如果说中国改革开放30年的历史，可以浓缩成一部企业争取经济民主和自由，打破垄断的历史的话，那么按照吴晓波的说法，在这个历史的舞台上，则一直存在着国有企业、民营企业与外资三种力量此消彼长、相互博弈的过程，他们的利益切割以及所形成的产业、资本格局，最终构成了中国经济成长的所有表象。因此，探讨“只有一个联想”现象，而不是“联想入围500强”现象，我们看到，企业改革的使命在30年以后随着“再国有化运动”，随着垄断态势的严峻仍然处于进行时，而不是已经成功。当中国的企业没有成为科技创新的主体，大量的科研资金仍然被分配于科研院校，当资本市场将大量的资源配置给房地产、金融等垄断型企业，民营企业和科技企业的融资途径却依然前路茫然，这样的资本体系和科技体系，再过30年，也许，仍然只有一个联想。

联想的入围，还有一个意义，那就是，除了联想以外，入围财富500强的中国企业，都不能算做跨国公司。联想通过收购IBM，已经成为完全意义上的跨国企业，而且，自联想收购IBM开始，鲜有负面消息，其在跨国并购的整合方面堪称老道。这和出海收购国外企业而折戟沉沙的中国开发银行、中国投资公司、中海油等企业形成了对比。也给中国企业的“跨国化”提供了一个很好的样板。就这个意义而言，在改革开放30周年之际，我们反思而不是庆贺联想入围500强，为联想能够更长时间的呆在500强的俱乐部里进行制度的努力，也为海尔、华为等仍然在路上的非国有企业加大制度供给，在以后的《财富》500强里，使联想不再成为单飞的孤雁，甚至匆匆的过客，而是能成为一个群体，让入围500强不再成为“中字号”的专利，这是改变中国入围企业成分的“颜色革命”。

这需要理想，更需要制度的努力。

2008年全球企业500强公布 中国29家企业进入

作者：吴其胜

文章来源：《外交评论——外交学院学报》2008年第1期

摘要: 上个世纪80 年代末以来, 跨层次分析在国际关系研究领域逐渐兴起, 且主要围绕两种模式展开。一种研究模式强调国内政治如何作为国际体系( 自变量) 与国家行为( 因变量) 之间的中间变量; 另一种则强调国内- 国际政治互动的同时性, 以及这种互动如何塑造了国家的行为方式。这两种跨层次研究在国际政治经济学和安全研究两个领域都取得了重要成果。然而, 由于仍面临着诸多困境, 跨层次研究仍未建立起较为成熟的理论体系, 跨层次理论的构建将是一个长期的不断积累的过程。

关键词: 跨层次分析; 研究模式; 理论构建

上个世纪80年代末以来，国际关系学界对不同分析层次进行综合研究的努力备受关注。学者们一方面对占主导地位的体系理论进行了批判，倡导把受到忽视或压制的国内政治研究重新带回到国际关系研究领域[1]；另一方面也强调建立跨层次的分析框架以超越传统的层次分析方法。正如许多学者指出的，这种跨层次研究已经吸引了众多学者的兴趣，并逐渐成为该学科“最富活力和生机的领域之一”。[2]然而，近些年来,一些学者也冷静地认识到该领域现有研究成果的局限性。与建立在特定层次上的理论特别是体系理论相比，跨层次的研究仍未建立起较为成熟的理论体系。正如彼得·古瑞维奇(Peter Gourevitch)所指出的，“我们在单独的国家层次或体系层次上已经建立了强有力的研究传统，但我们还没有提供很好的理论以把握国家与体系之间的互动，……（在这方面的研究中）我们拥有很好的‘隐喻’，但却没有清晰的研究纲领。”[3]

显然，国际关系中现有的跨层次研究向我们提出了以下问题：为何学者们围绕跨层次研究付出了大量的努力，但在构建好的理论上却只取得了有限的进展？或者跨层次研究面临着哪些困境？我们又如何看待跨层次研究在国际关系研究中的地位？毫无疑问，对这些问题的回答不仅关系到我们对跨层次研究本身的认识——即跨层次研究是否可行，还影响到对未来国际关系研究取向的定位——即国际关系的研究是否只能停留在单个的分析层次上。

本文旨在对国际关系领域跨层次研究的主要成果进行梳理和归纳,并通过对现有跨层次研究所面临的几种困境的总结，尝试对第一个问题进行初步回答，最后在此基础上提出关于第二个问题的看法。文章的第一部分主要对跨层次研究的含义进行界定,并指出国际关系领域主要存在两种跨层次研究模式,即“顺时”分析和“共时”分析。前者强调国内政治如何作为国际体系与国家行为之间的干预变量；而后者强调国内-国际政治互动的同时性，以及这种互动如何塑造了国家的行为方式。文章第二部分则根据对跨层次研究的以上界定，分别对国际政治经济学和安全研究两个领域内的主要跨层次研究成果进行了梳理和介绍。第三部分对现有跨层次研究所面临的几种困境进行了总结，解释了相对于传统的层次分析，跨层次研究为何仍未建立起较为成熟的理论体系；文章总结部分进一步提出了关于如何看待跨层次研究的初步看法。

一、何谓跨层次研究

众所周知，自肯尼思·华尔兹的《人、国家与战争》出版以来，国际关系领域内的众多研究都主要围绕他的三个层次（或“意象”）展开。[4]这种层次分析方法通过对现实的简化，一方面为研究者提供了界定研究变量及变量之间关系的重要工具，极大地促进了国际关系研究的科学化；[5]另一方面也人为地在不同的层次之间，特别是在体系（国际政治）与单元（国内政治）之间，设置了似乎不可弥合的鸿沟。[6]虽然很少有人否认各层次之间相互联系的事实，但都主要认为在在理论的构建中同时考虑多个或所有层次上的因素是不现实或没有必要的。然而，随着全球化进程的加深，经济事务在国际关系中重要性的提升，以及冷战的结束，国际关系理论界开始对传统的层次分析方法提出了质疑，并强调对国际政治和国内政治中的变量进行综合考虑并加以理论化的必要性。[7]然而，如果说该领域内的学者在关于跨层次分析的必要性上不存在分歧的话，但是对跨层次的具体含义则没有给予太多的重视，跨层次研究的含义似乎不言而喻，无需深究。[8]而本文认为对该概念的清晰界定是梳理和评价现有研究成果的重要前提。

从广义的角度来讲，国际关系中的跨层次研究是指研究不同层次之间（主要是国内政治与国际政治之间）的相互关系，认为各层次上的因素是相互联系而非孤立的。如果用A、B分别代表国内与国际政治中的两种变量（包括自变量和因变量），则该意义上的跨层次研究将包括以下几种模式：

① A→B ②A←B ③A〓B ④A←→B

其中，第1种模式考察的是国内因素如何造成了国际后果，包括国家的行为与行为模式，它属于典型的“第二意象”研究范畴；[9]第2种模式属于“颠倒的第二意象”的研究范畴，主要考察国际体系因素如何影响了国内政治。[10]从严格意义上来说，这两种模式都不能算作国际关系中的跨层次研究。首先，第1种研究模式建立在传统的层次分析方法之上，即从单个层次上寻找变量来解释国家行为和国际政治的规律，而这种研究逻辑正是跨层次分析所反对和超越的对象。其次，“颠倒的第二意象”研究最终关注的是国内政治后果，主要被应用于比较政治学中，以解释国内联盟的形成和国内政治变迁；[11]而国际关系研究最终要解释的还是国际后果，如特定的国际事件、国家的行为、世界政治经济的特征，等等。[12]因此，国际关系中的跨层次研究应该是对以上两种模式的综合，即通过结合国内、国际层次上的变量来解释国际结果。

上图中的第3 、4种模式则分别代表了这种结合的两种努力。其中第3种模式在前两种研究的基础上加入了“反馈”机制，主要分析国内或国际层次上的变量如何通过对方发挥作。在解释国家的对外政策时，该模式遵循着“国际政治→国内政治→国际政治（对外政策）”的研究路径，即把国内政治当作国际体系与国家行为之间的干预变量。由于这种研究模式关注的是国内-国际互动的顺时性(sequentially)，因此本文暂且称之为跨层次的“顺时”分析。第4种研究模式与第3种研究模式一样，都认为国内-国际之间的关系是双向的，但与前者不同，该研究模式强调国内政治与国际政治之间的互动是同时(simultaneously)进行的，认为在解释国际现象时应该同时考虑国内政治与国际政治的压力。与前面的“顺时”分析相对应，本文暂且将其称之为“共时”分析。[13]以下将分别按照这两种分析模式，对国际关系中跨层次研究所取得的主要成果进行简要梳理和介绍。

二、主要研究成果

跨层次研究的以上两种模式广泛存在于国际关系的研究当中，但归纳起来，主要集中于国际政治经济学和安全研究两个领域。在前一个领域，跨层次研究主要被用来解释国家的对外经济政策以及国家之间的经济谈判与合作；在安全研究领域，跨层次研究主要关注的是国家的战略行为，以及国家追求权力和安全的行为方式。这两个领域内的跨层次研究成果可以用下表加以概括：

--	国际政治经济学领域	安全研究领域
顺时分析	Ⅰ国际政治经济如何通过塑造国内行为体偏好而影响对外经济政策Milner 1988; Rogowski 1989; Frieden 1991; Ikenberry et al 1988; etc.	Ⅱ 体系压力如何通过“第一、二意象”影响国家行为Wohlforth 1993; Taliaferro 2004; Snyder 1991; Zakaria 1998; etc.
共时分析	Ⅲ 国际协议取决于谈判者（政府首脑）在国内、国际两个“棋盘”上的博弈[14]Putnam 1988; Evans et al 1993；Mo 1994,1995; Milner 1997; etc.	Ⅳ 处于不同国内/国际结构压力下的国家官员如何利用国际/国内战略实现国内/国际目标Mastanduno et al, 1989.

按照对国内行为体的不同界定，方框Ⅰ又可以被划分为两个主要流派，即多元主义和国家主义。[15]其中，多元主义理论强调社会行为体在连接国际经济与国家对外经济政策中的作用，认为国际经济环境的变化导致了国内社会行为体政策偏好的变化，而这些社会行为体通过参与政策进程而影响对外经济政策的制定。上个世纪80年代末以来，一些学者运用经济学的理论模型，对国际经济、国内行为体偏好、对外经济政策三者之间的关系进行了演绎分析，取得一些重要的研究成果，尤其体现在贸易领域。例如，海伦·米尔纳(Helen V. Milner)以美国和法国为例，考察了逐渐增加的经济相互依赖如何在两国内部催生了反对保护主义的政策偏好，而这种政策偏好的存在则解释了在面临严重国际经济危机的情况下，两国仍坚持了较为开放的贸易政策；[16]罗纳德·罗戈斯基(Ronald Rogowski)运用了斯托珀-萨缪尔森(Stolper-Samuelson)的贸易模型,着重考察了贸易如何塑造了不同要素持有者的政策偏好与国内政治联盟，指出从自由贸易中受损的稀缺要素持有者将支持保护主义的政策，而从贸易中受益的丰富要素持有者则偏好自由的贸易政策；[17]杰弗里·弗雷登(Jeffry Frieden)运用了李嘉图-维纳(Ricardo-Viner)的贸易理论，强调技术与地理环境阻碍了生产要素的流动性，使得要素与特定的部门相联系，而部门的贸易政策偏好则取决于其在国际市场上是否具有相对竞争力。[18]虽然没有明确指出，但以上研究成果都暗含了国内行为体（无论是企业、要素持有者或部门）的偏好能够直接转化为政策结果的逻辑。在之后的研究当中，该领域内的研究者更加强调了国内制度在行为体偏好与政策结果之间的作用。[19]

与多元主义不同，国家主义理论强调相对于社会的国家在连接体系与政策中所扮演的角色。在国家主义者看来，国家并非只是社会利益集团斗争的场所或裁判者，作为国家行为体的国家官员——即负责外交事务的行政官员，其政策偏好来源于国际政治经济体系的压力，是对国家整体利益的考虑，且在本质上不同于社会利益集团和其他政府官员的狭隘利益目标。更重要的是，国家官员能够通过各种手段影响和操控对外经济政策的制定过程，如重新把经济政策界定为外交政策议题、动员潜在的社会支持者、利用自身独特优势建立跨国联盟以对国内政策过程施加压力、利用历史机遇转变政策制定的制度环境等。[20]国家主义的这种跨层次分析被广泛地应用于美国对外经济政策的分析当中，如斯蒂芬·克拉斯纳(Stephen D. Krasner)和约翰·艾肯伯里(G. John Ikenberry)对美国对外原材料投资政策的分析；[21] 戴维·莱克(David A. Lake)、斯蒂芬·哈格德(Stephan Haggard)和迈克尔·马斯坦多诺(Michael Mastanduno)对美国对外贸易政策的分析；[22]等等。需要指出的是，国家主义者一开始就注重制度分析。[23]但与多元主义者所使用的理性选择制度主义不同，国家主义者所采用的是历史制度主义。[24]在这种历史制度主义的研究路径下，国家被界定为是在各种历史力量相互作用下形成的、反映了特定历史时期主导观念的制度结构(institutional structure)。这种制度结构能够通过塑造和限制政策参与者的偏好和所能够利用的政策资源，来影响政策的选择范围，并调节国际政治经济体系压力和国内政治反应之间的关系。[25]朱迪斯·戈尔茨坦(Judith Goldstein)将这种历史制度主义的分析应用到美国对外贸易政策的研究当中，并通过详尽的数据分析证明了反映不同观念的制度框架如何影响了利益集团寻求保护主义政策的偏好和能力。[26]

方框Ⅱ是代表了安全研究领域内的顺时分析，其重要代表就是近些年来逐渐兴起的新古典现实主义理论。虽然与结构现实主义一样强调权力分配的重要性，但新古典现实主义者认为“这种权力对外交政策的影响是间接和复杂的，因为体系压力必须通过单位层次上的干预变量被加以转化”。[27]在具体的研究当中，新古典现实主义者分别围绕“第一意象”和“第二意象”上的两组干预变量展开，前者包括“诸如情绪、群体内/外的区分、感知、社会认同理论、个性和对冒险的厌恶”，后者则包括“国家制度、政党和利益集团”等。[28]例如，在“第一意象”上，威廉·沃尔福斯(William C. Wohlforth)认为国家的行为是由相对权力和领导人对权力的认知共同决定的，相应地，美国、苏联领导人对双方实力的评估塑造了两国在冷战期间的行为；[29]乔纳森·默瑟(Jonathan Mercer) 运用了社会认同理论(social identity theory)，对国家的身份作出了社会心理学的解释，从社会心理而非体系结构的角度解释和支持了新现实主义关于自助和相对受益的假定；[30]丹尼尔·拜伊曼(Daniel Byman)和肯尼思·波拉克(Kenneth Pollack) 倡导对领导者的个性和能力给予新的关注，以解释国家为何在特定的历史时期采取了更具进攻性的对外政策；[31]杰弗里·塔利亚夫洛(Jeffrey W. Taliaferro) 在防御现实主义和预期理论的基础上建立了关于外交政策的“冒险平衡”(balance-of-risk )理论，指出国家领导者由于不希望国家的相对权力、国际地位或威望的衰落，而经常不惜付出惨重代价在那些对本国没有直接威胁的边缘地区采取冒险的外交和军事干预政策。[32]在“第二意象”上，杰克·斯奈德(Jack Snyder) 通过强调国内利益集团的“卡特尔化”(cartelization)来解释为何大国过度扩张的现象是如此常见；[33]托马斯·柯庆生(Thomas J. Christensen) 指出中美两国在冷战初期动员国内公众支持各自安全战略的努力，进一步激化了根源于无政府体系的双边敌对关系；[34]法里德·扎卡里亚(Fareed Zakaria) 认为，由于缺乏一个能够从社会有效汲取资源的国家机器，美国崛起为世界大国的时间被延迟了。[35]

倡导对国际-国内的互动进行一般均衡分析的努力最早出现在国际政治经济学领域（方框Ⅲ），其代表成果是由罗伯特·帕特南(Robert D. Putnam)提出的“双层博弈”(two-level games)概念。该分析框架假设在国际谈判中，谈判者或政府首脑同时面临国际、国内两个“棋盘”。在国际层次上，谈判者之间相互博弈以达成对各自国家最有利的临时协议；在国内层次上，谈判者面临着追求自身利益的社会集团的压力，因而必须建立联盟基础使协议得以批准。决定谈判成功与否的关键在于由国内社会集团的偏好、联盟、国内制度以及国际层次上谈判者的策略所共同决定的“获胜集合”，即一组能够被国内选民批准的国际协议。一国国内“获胜集合”的大小不仅决定着谈判的成败，还影响着该国在国际谈判中讨价还价的能力。[36]“双层博弈”分析的提出极大地推动了学界对国内政治与国际谈判之间互动关系的研究热情，研究者不仅尝试对该概念进行修正和完善，还逐渐把它应用安全等其他领域。例如，在《双面外交：国际谈判与国内政治》一书中，作者们通过对11个案例的考察，对“双层博弈”最初所暗含的几种假设给予了更深入地讨论；[37]杰弗里·诺弗(Jeffrey W. Knopf)通过加入第三个层次上的博弈——“联盟伙伴”，以及通过区分三种国内-国际互动方式——跨政府、跨国和跨层次，建立了所谓的“3-3”分析框架 (three-and-three framework)；[38]伦纳德·斯考帕(Leonard J. Schoppa)等人分别探讨了谈判者成功运用“协同增效战略” (synergistic strategies)和有效利用国内限制以增加国际谈判优势的条件；[39]彼得·杜姆勃(Peter F. Trumbore) 着重考察了公共舆论对国际谈判的影响；[40]凯苏克·艾伊达( Keisuke Iida)、米尔纳等分别考察了信息不对称和国内偏好分布对谈判结果的影响；[41]等等。

强调对国内-国际互动进行一般均衡分析的学者并不限于国际政治经济学领域，它同样存在于现实主义学派关于国家对外战略行为的研究当中（方框Ⅳ）。在帕特南的“双层博弈”概念提出不久，马斯坦多诺等学者就在原有国家主义理论的基础上，提出了一种关于国内-国际互动的现实主义分析框架。他们着重考察了国家官员如何通过国际战略（或国内战略）来实现国内目标（或国际目标）。例如，国家官员为在国际体系中追求权力与财富，而在国内进行动员，干预经济以刺激和促进社会整体福利的增长，或者从社会汲取资源用于军事开支、对外援助、宣传等；国家官员同样可以通过在国外汲取资源(external extraction)或获得外部合法性(external validation)等方式,实现在国内寻求对资源的控制和保持自身合法性等国内目标。更为重要的是, 马斯坦多诺等学者把现有的国内结构理论和国际结构理论加以融合,提出了国家官员在面对不同的国内结构（包括“硬”国家与“软”国家）和国际结构（包括“强”国家与“弱”国家）的压力下会采取何种战略的几种假设。[42]

三、面临的困境

如果说国际关系学界关于什么是理论仍未达成一致意见的话，那么关于什么是好的理论的界定则有许多共同之处。总的来看，一个好的理论不仅要界定清晰，还应该用尽量少的变量对普遍存在的现象进行准确地解释和预测。[43]首先，好的理论要求对变量以及变量之间的关系进行清晰的界定，并提出可验证的假设，这也是建立理论的基础；其次，一种理论的构建不仅要追求较强的解释力，还要避免使用过多的变量，因此好的理论还要求在准确性、普遍性和简洁性之间寻求平衡。虽然能够同时满足这些要求的理论少之又少，且多数的国际关系理论只是在不同程度上满足了以上标准，但与国际关系中的其他研究领域相比，跨层次研究领域内的研究成果与这些标准的距离更加明显。现有的跨层次理论不仅在处理解释力和简洁性之间的关系上存在局限，更重要的是在选择和界定研究变量（特别是国内层次上的研究变量）时仍具有很大的随意性，关于各层次变量之间的关系也无法提出较为系统的、可验证的假设。例如，新古典现实主义的跨层次研究对体系变量与国内变量之间的因果关系仍缺乏系统的界定，正如斯蒂芬·沃尔特(Stephen M. Walt)在对现实主义理论的一篇总结性文章中指出，新古典现实主义“几乎完全依赖于他人提出的理论观点，自身仍未提出一套独特的解释假设。……并为了获得描述的精确性和政策价值而放弃了一般性和预测能力”；[44]被认为最具潜力和开创性的双层博弈研究不仅很难界定所有博弈者的偏好，而且也未能对国内-国际的互动进行清晰地预测和检验；[45]建立在经济学理论基础之上的跨层次研究提出了关于国家对外经济政策的较为精确的假设，但却局限于贸易领域；[46]等等。总的看来，跨层次研究仍面临着以下困境，这些困境在很大程度上导致了现有研究成果的局限性。

首先，在研究模式或研究路径的选择上。如何在“顺时”分析与“共时”分析两条路径之间进行选择是跨层次研究首先遇到的难题。两种分析路径各有优点，却也都有自身的局限。“顺时”分析从国际政治或经济体系的特征出发，考察体系的压力如何通过各种国内干预变量转化为国家的对外政策。由于存在明确的研究出发点，所以与强调同时着眼于国际体系和国内政治的“共时”分析相比，该方法具有更强的操作性。特别是在对外经济政策的研究中，学者们利用的较为坚实的经济学理论工具演绎出国际经济压力下的国内行为体利益和政策偏好的分布结构，并在此基础上利用理性选择制度主义的分析工具，建立了较为成熟的分析框架。然而，如一些学者指出的，该研究模式过于优先考虑体系层次的影响，而只把国内政治作为解释“剩余变化”(residual variance)的变量加以考虑，从而“倾向于鼓励临时性的解释，而非建立关于国内与国际政治之间互动的明确理论。……没有一个宽泛的理论框架，研究者们关于应该强调哪种国内因素仍无法达成一致”。[47]“共时”分析方法由于强调了国内-国际互动的同时性和相互性，因而有利于更为全面、真实地把握两个层次之间的关系。然而该研究模式在实际应用中的可行性同样受到质疑。正如詹姆斯·卡波拉索(James A. Caporaso)在评价双层博弈研究时所指出的，寻求对国内-国际的互动进行全面和完整的理解并不必然建立在一般均衡分析之上，“虽然诸如‘互动’、‘协同效应’和‘同时性’等术语具有明确的意义，他们周围同样环绕着具有不可分析的含义的光环”，其他分析方法，如在局部均衡分析的基础上建立一种完整地的模型，比这种“一开始就强调全面性的模型更加实际可行”。[48]他同时也指出，经济学意义上的一般均衡分析主要适用于平行的专业化市场环境，其中，商品、服务和要素市场之间的关系上没有明显的等级原则。但是政治不仅仅只是平等实体之间的交换行为，社会和政治理论也不同于有关市场行为的理论，相应地，“如果政治生活意味着等级——不仅仅是精确意义上的权力关系，还是一种广泛意义上的社会组织原则，那么一般均衡分析的重要性就大打折扣了。”[49]也正是以上两种研究模式局限性的存在，导致了现有的跨层次研究要么缺乏对国内变量进行整合的理论框架，要么过于追求经济学意义上的一般均衡分析而脱离了政治分析的本质。

其次，在理论的解释力与简洁性之间的平衡上。正如所有跨层次研究的支持者所认为的，单独的体系和单元层次上的研究都是不完整的，要更为准确地解释国际现象，必须既要考虑国际因素，也要考虑国内因素。然而，对准确性的追求不仅加大了理论整合的难度，更对理论的简洁性提出了挑战。正如斯蒂芬·范埃弗拉指出的，理论的解释力与简洁性并不是互补的，“简洁的获得通常是以部分地牺牲解释力为代价的。……倘若是要解释世界，我们就可能需要容忍某种程度的复杂”。[50]这就要求跨层次研究者在两者之间保持平衡，即实现“更加有限但却更精确的归纳”。[51]这一目标不仅要求要尽可能多地考察不同层次上的变量以保证解释的精确性，同时还要求能够整合这些变量并作出一般性的归纳，而不至于变成对现象的纯粹描述。然而，在具体的研究中保持这种平衡却并非易事。一方面，有些跨层次研究过于追求简化而使理论的解释力受到了削弱。例如，多元主义理论和国家主义理论对国内行为体及其偏好都作了简单的界定，前者忽视了或贬低了国家官员的相对独立的政策偏好，而后者则过于强调了国家相对于社会的独立性，从两种理论都只是对现实的片面归纳。另一方面，为了使理论更具解释力，跨层次研究者不断加入新的研究变量或对原有的假设进行更多的限制，使分析模型更加细化和复杂化。如本文第二部分所介绍的，在国际谈判的研究中，学者们通过加入信息的不确定性、谈判者的政策目标与国内选民偏好的差异、国内舆论等变量，使双层博弈理论的解释力更加精确，但是却增加了理论整合的难度。因此，如何在理论的精确性和简洁性之间保持适当的平衡，无疑跨层次分析所面临的一个重要挑战。[52]

最后，在国际政治与国内政治之间关系的处理上。关于国内政治与国际政治之间关系的处理，虽然并不直接导致理论的“好”与“差”，但关乎跨层次研究自身存在的合理性。如果过多地关注其中一种分析层次，则必然会弱化跨层次研究的必要性。如果单个层次上的自变量在导致因变量的过程中起主导地位的话，则考虑其他层次上的变量的必要性就大打折扣。倡导对国际政治与国内政治的互动进行研究的学者，无论是把国内政治作为干预变量的研究，还是对两者进行一般均衡分析，都强调既要考虑体系因素，也要考虑单元层次上的国内因素，以超越原有的层次分析。然而，在实际的分析当中，两个层次之间平衡关系的处理并不简单。研究者要么侧重于国内政治的分析，要么不自觉地回到了体系理论的假设当中。例如，在关于对外经济政策的分析当中，早期的多元主义和国家主义理论都暗含了国际体系决定国家行为的假设，无论是国内社会集团还是国家官员，他们在对外经济政策过程中的政策偏好都来自于国际政治经济体系，并且两种理论都强调这些行为体的偏好都能反映到具体的政策当中。[53]与此相反，新古典现实主义者的研究则由于过度关注国内政治，而被批评为回到纯粹的“内部政治”(Innenpolitik)研究传统，[54]或者退化为自由主义者。[55]同样，杰弗里·弗里登和莉莎·马丁也指出，大部分关于双层博弈的研究成果都集中关注国内利益、制度和信息对国际层次上谈判与合作的影响。[56]

由此可见，跨层次研究面临的以上困境对在该领域内理论的构建提出了很大的挑战。这些困境或两难解释了，虽然不是全部，为何该领域内的研究仍未能提出较为系统的理论框架。

四、总结：如何看待跨层次分析

跨层次研究成果的局限性及跨层次研究本身面临的以上困境，无疑使得国际关系学界对跨层次研究的合理性产生了怀疑。然而，要客观地对待跨层次分析，还要认识到该方法产生的必然性，以及它对国际关系研究所具有的意义。正如任何新的研究努力的出现都有其现实和理论背景一样，跨层次分析的产生也有其产生的必然性与合理性。如果说冷战的现实压力和行为主义的方法论革命为国际关系中的层次分析提供了产生的背景，经济相互依赖的加强和冷战的结束，以及跨学科研究的兴起[57]，则为跨层次分析提供了重要的现实依据和学理基础。跨层次分析的产生不仅是因为国际事务与国内事务之间联系逐渐密切的现实，还因为现有的国际关系理论忽视或无法把握这种现实。特别是当体系理论无法解释特定国家的行为，而现有的外交政策研究又忽视了国际体系作用的情况下，跨层次分析为我们提供了一种新的研究视角。

同样不能忽视的是，在过去二十多年的时间里，许多学科——如经济学、历史社会学、心理学、传记学等——的研究方法被用来分析国内-国际之间的互动，并取得了许多具体的研究成果。这些成果不仅加深了我们对国际关系的理解，也在很大程度上对主导国际关系研究的层次分析方法（特别是体系层次的研究方法）进行了修正和完善，从而使跨层次研究成为推动国际关系研究进一步发展的一个重要动力。更为重要的是，作为一种新的研究议程，跨层次分析已经并将继续吸引着大批的学者的研究兴趣，他们分别围绕对外经济政策、国际谈判、合作、冲突等议题不断拓展跨层次分析的应用范围。因此，仅从激发学者研究热情的角度来说，跨层次分析已经取得很大成功。[58]

总之，客观地评价跨层次研究在国际关系研究中的地位，不仅要求我们要严肃地面对该方法所面临的困境，还要认识到其产生的必然性以及对国际关系研究所具有的意义。国际政治和国内政治之间的联系和互动是一个复杂的问题，通过建立一种理论模型而一劳永逸地解决这一问题是不现实的。因此，跨层次分析在未来的进展将是一种渐进的、不断积累的过程。[59]

注释：

*本文为2007 年5 月提交给在南开大学举行的中国国际关系学会“第二届博士生论坛”发言论文。论文得到了袁正清、胡宗山两位老师以及其他与会老师和同学的批评与指正, 任晓教授对论文的修改提出了许多宝贵意见, 在此一并表示感谢。作者也要特别感谢匿名审稿人对论文所作的细致入微的修改。当然, 作者本人对文中的谬误之处负全部责任。

[1] 关于国内政治研究的回归, 复旦大学的李巍博士生和北京大学的王勇副教授等对此作了精彩的总结和分析。参见李巍、王勇:《国际关系研究层次的回落》,《国际政治科学》, 2006 年第3 期, 第112- 142 页。

[2] 这种跨层次分析的努力尤其体现在国际政治经济学领域。参见苏长和：《跨国关系与国内政治：比较政治与国际政治经济学视野下的国际关系研究》，载《美国研究》，2003年第4期，第111-125页；曲博：《国内政治、国际关系与国际政治经济学研究》，载《国际政治研究》，2006年第2期，第62-72页。

[3] Peter Gourevitch, “Domestic Politics and International Relations,” in Walter Carlsnaes, Thomas Risse, and Beth A. Simmons, Handbook of International Relations, London: Sage Publications, 2002, p. 321. 关于类似观点，还请参见Jeffry A. Frieden, and Lisa L. Martin, “International Political Economy: Global and Domestic Interactions,” in Ira Katznelson, and Helen V. Milner, eds., Political Science: the State of the Discipline, New York: W. W. Norton & Company, Inc., 2002, p. 120.

[4] [美]肯尼思·N·华尔兹著，倪世雄等译：《人、国家与战争：一种理论分析》，上海译文出版社，1991年版。

[5] 秦亚青：《层次分析法与国际关系研究》，载《欧洲》，1998年第3期，第8页。

[6] James A. Caporaso, “Across the Great Divide: Integrating Comparative and International Politics”, International Studies Quarterly, Vol. 41, No. 4, December 1997, p. 564.

[7] Robert Pahre, and Paul A. Papayoanou, “Using Game Theory to Link Domestic and International Politics,” The Journal of Conflict Resolution, Vol. 41, No. 1, February 1997, p. 4; Ian Clark, Globalization and International Relations Theory, Oxford: Oxford University Press, 1999, pp. 15-32.

[8] 在英语文献中，跨层次分析(cross-level analysis)有诸多表达方式，如links between /interaction between /connection between /interdependence of international and domestic politics, 等等。

[9] 参见Graham T. Allison, Essence of Decision: Explaining the Cuban Missile Crisis, Boston: Little, Brown, 1971; Peter J. Katzenstein, ed., Between Power and Plenty: Foreign Economic Policies of Advanced Industrial States, Madison: University of Wisconsin Press, 1978.

[10] 参见Peter Gourevitch, “The Second Image Reversed: the International Sources of Domestic Politics,” International Organization, Vol. 32, No. 4, Autumn 1978, pp. 881-912; Peter J. Katzenstein, Small States in World Markets: Industrial Policy in Europe, Ithaca: Cornell University Press, 1985.

[11] 例如，古瑞维奇在它的一篇具有开拓性的文章中指出，“一个比较政治学者主要是对一国国内结构的产生、发展以及与其他国家的国内结构之间的区别……等问题寻求解释。在回答这些问题时，国际体系本身可以成为一种解释变量。”参见Peter Gourevitch, “The Second Image Reversed,” pp. 881-882.

[12] 正如研究变量并不仅仅是因变量一样，国际关系的研究对象并不等于国际关系研究所要解释的对象，前者的外延明显大于后者。国际关系的研究对象可以包括利益集团、政治家个人、政党、官僚机构等国内因素，但这些因素主要还是被当作自变量或中间变量，不可能是“主假设”中的因变量。关于研究变量、自变量和因变量之间的关系，参见[美]斯蒂芬?范埃弗拉著，陈琪译：《政治学研究方法指南》，北京大学出版社，2006年版，第10-11页。

[13] 在国际关系研究当中，这种分析方法又被称之为经济学意义上“一般均衡分析”。参见Robert D. Putnam, “Diplomacy and Domestic Politics: The Logic of Two-Level Games,” International Organization, Vol. 42, No. 3, Summer 1988, p. 430.

[14] 正如下文将要介绍的，这种“双层博弈”的研究最早产生于国际政治经济学领域，用于分析国经济谈判，但随后逐渐被应用到安全等研究领域。

[15] 一般认为，IPE领域内的国内政治研究包括多元主义、国家主义和马克思主义三种理论流派，而本文主要考察了前两种，它们分别是作为一般性理论的自由主义和现实主义在国内政治层次上的具体研究纲领。参见[美]彼得·卡赞斯坦等：《〈国际组织〉杂志与世界政治研究》，载[美]彼得·卡赞斯坦 等编，秦亚青 等译，《世界政治理论的探索与争鸣》，上海世纪出版集团，2006年版，第24页。

[16] Helen Milner, “Resisting the Protectionist Temptation: Industry and the Making of Trade Policy in France and the United States During the 1970s,” International Organization, Vol. 41, No. 4, Autumn 1987, pp. 639-665.

[17] Ronald Rogowski, Commerce and Coalitions: How Trade Affects Domestic Political Alignments, Princeton: Princeton University Press, 1989.

[18] Jeffry A. Frieden, Debt, Development and Democracy: Modern Political Economy and Latin America, 1965-1985, Princeton: Princeton University Press, 1991.

[19] 参见Helen V. Milner, Interests, Institutions, and Information: Domestic Politics and International Relations, Princeton: Princeton University Press, 1997; Ronald Rogowski, “Institutions as Constraints on Strategic Choice,” in David A. Lake, and Robert Powell eds., Strategic Choice and International Relations, Princeton: Princeton University Press, 1999, pp. 115-136;

[20] G. John Ikenberry et al, “Introduction: Approaches to Explaining American Foreign Economic Policy,” International Organization, Vol. 42, No. 1, Winter 1988, pp. 12-13.

[21] Stephen D. Krasner, Defending the National Interest: Raw Materials Investments and U.S. Foreign Policy, Princeton: Princeton University Press, 1978; G. John Ikenberry, “Market Solutions for State Problems: the International and Domestic Politics of American Oil Decontrol”, International Organization, Vol. 42, No. 1, Winter 1988, pp. 151-177.

[22] David A. Lake, “The State and American Trade Strategy in the Pre-Hegemonic Era,” International Organization, Vol. 42, No. 1, Winter 1988, pp. 33-58; Stephan Haggard, “The Institutional Foundations of Hegemony: Explaining the Reciprocal Trade Agreements Act of 1934,” International Organization, Vol. 42, No. 1, Winter 1988, pp. 91-119; Michael Mastanduno, “Trade as a Strategic Weapon: American and Alliance Export Control Policy in the Early Postwar Period,” International Organization, Vol. 42, No. 1, Winter 1988, pp. 121-150.

[23] 在美国政治学界，国家主义在20世纪70年代后期的复兴，在很大程度上就是以制度主义的形式出现的。参见Peter A. Hall, Rosemary C. R. Taylor, “Political Science and the Three New Institutionalisms,” Political Studies, Vol. XLIV, 1996, pp. 937-938.

[24] 其中，理性选择制度主义关注制度相对于互动的理性行为体所具有的功能，而历史制度主义则强调制度的“粘性”和“路径依赖”。前者更适用于多元主义的分析，而后者更靠近国家主义理论。参见朱天飚： 《比较政治经济学》，北京大学出版社，2006年版，第139-159页。

[25] G. John Ikenberry, “Conclusion: An Institutional Approach to American Foreign Economic Policy,” International Organization, Vol. 42, No. 1, Winter 1988, pp. 219-243.

[26] Judith Goldstein, “Ideas, Institutions, and American Trade Policy,” International Organization, Vol. 42, No. 1, Winter 1988, pp. 179-217; Ideas, Institutions, and American Trade Policy, Ithaca: Cornell University Press, 1993.

[27] Gideon Rose, “Neoclassical Realism and Theories of Foreign Policy,” World Politics, Vol. 51, No. 1, October 1998, p. 146, 转引自Jeffrey W. Taliaferro, “Security-Seeking under Anarchy: Defensive Realism Revisited,” International Security, Vol. 25, No. 3, Winter 2000-2001, p. 134.

[28] Jennifer Sterling-Folker, “Organizing the Inter-National: Neoclassical Realism and the Third Image Reverse,” Paper delivered to the Fifth Pan-European Meeting of the European Consortium for Political Research, The Hague, the Netherlands, September 9-11, 2004, p.1.

[29] William C. Wohlforth, “Realism and the End of the Cold War,” International Security, Vol. 19, No. 3, Winter 1994-1995, pp. 91-129; The Elusive Balance: Power and Perceptions During the Cold War, Ithaca: Cornell University press, 1993.

[30] Jonathan Mercer, “Anarchy and Identity,” International Organization，Vol. 49, No. 2, Spring 1995, pp. 229-252.

[31] Daniel L. Byman, and Kenneth M. Pollack, “Let Us Now Praise Great Men: Bringing the Statesman Back in,” International Security, Vol. 25, No. 4, Spring 2001, pp.107-146.

[32] Jeffrey W. Taliaferro, “Power Politics and the Balance of Risk: Hypotheses on Great Power Intervention in the Periphery,” Political Psychology, Vol. 25, No. 2, April 2004, pp. 177-211; Balancing Risks: Great Power Intervention in the Periphery, Ithaca: Cornell University, 2004.

[33] Jack Snyder, Myths of Empire: Domestic Politics and International Ambition, Ithaca: Cornell University Press, 1991.

[34] Thomas J. Christensen, Useful Adversaries: Grand Strategy, Domestic Mobilization, and Sino-American Conflict, 1947-1958, Princeton: Princeton University Press, 1996.

[35] Fareed Zakaria, From Wealth to Power: the Unusual Origins of America’s World Role, Princeton: Princeton University Press, 1998.

[36] Robert D. Putnam, “Diplomacy and Domestic Politics,” pp. 427-460.

[37] Peter B. Evans et al, eds., Double-edged Diplomacy: International Bargaining and Domestic Politics, Berkeley: University of California Press, 1993.

[38] Jeffrey W. Knopf, “Beyond Two-Level Games: Domestic-International Interaction in the Intermediate-Range Nuclear Forces Negotiations,” International organization, Vol. 47, No. 4, Autumn 1993, pp. 599-628.

[39] Leonard J. Schoppa, “Two-Level Games and Bargaining Outcomes: Why Gaiatsu Succeeds in Japan in Some Cases but not Others,” International Organization, Vol. 47, No. 3, Summer 1993, pp. 353-386; Frederick W. Mayer, “Managing Domestic Differences in International Negotiations: the Strategic Use of Internal Side-payments,” International organization, Vol. 46, No. 4, Autumn 1992, pp. 793-818; Jongryn Mo, “The Logic of Two-Level Games with Endogenous Domestic Coalitions,” The Journal of Conflict Resolution, Vol. 38, No. 3, September 1994, pp. 402-422; “Domestic Institutions and International Bargaining: The Role of Agent Veto in Two-Level Games,” The American Political Science Review, Vol. 89, No. 4, December 1995, pp. 914-924.

[40] Peter F. Trumbore, “Public Opinion as a Domestic Constraint in International Negotiations: Two-Level Games in the Anglo-Irish Peace Process,” International Studies Quarterly, Vol. 42, No. 3, September 1998, pp. 545-565.

[41] Keisuke Iida, “When and How Do Domestic Constraints Matter? Two-Level Games with Uncertainty,” The Journal of Conflict Resolution, Vol. 37, No. 3, September 1993, pp. 403-426; Helen V. Milner, Interests, Institutions, and Information, pp. 67-98.

[42] Michael Mastanduno et al, “Toward a Realist Theory of State Action,” International Studies Quarterly, Vol. 33, No. 4, December 1989, pp. 457-474.

[43] 参见[美]斯蒂芬?范埃弗拉著，陈琪译：《政治学研究方法指南》，第16-20页；[美]W. 菲利普斯·夏夫利著，新知译：《政治科学研究方法》（第六版），上海世纪出版集团，2006年版，第18-20页。

[44] Stephen M. Walt, “The Enduring Relevance of the Realist Tradition,” in Ira Katznelson, and Helen V. Milner, eds., Political Science: the State of the Discipline, p. 211.

[45] Peter Gourevitch, “Domestic Politics and International Relations,” pp. 321-322.

[46] Jeffry A. Frieden, and Lisa L. Martin, “International Political Economy,” pp. 125-126.

[47] Andrew Moravcsik, “Introduction: Integrating International and Domestic Theories of International Bargaining,” p. 14.

[48] James A. Caporaso, “Across the Great Divide,” pp. 573.

[49] Ibid., pp. 574-575.

[50] [美]斯蒂芬·范埃弗拉著，陈琪译：《政治学研究方法指南》，第17页。

[51] Fareed Zakaria, “Realism and Domestic Politics,” pp. 178-179.

[52] 关于跨层次理论在简洁性和解释力方面所面临的困境，还请参见李巍、王勇：《国际关系研究层次的回落》，载《国际政治科学》，2006年第3期，第140-141页。

[53] 值得一提的是，国家主义的两个重要代表人物——克拉斯纳、莱克——的早期成果都是典型的体系理论。参见: Stephen D. Krasner, “State Power and the Structure of International Trade,” in Jeffry A. Frieden, and David A. Lake, International Political Economy: Perspectives on Global Power and Wealth, New York: St. Martin’s Press, 2000, pp. 19-36(北京大学出版社影印版); David A. Lake, “International Economic Structures and American Foreign Economic Policy, 1887-1934,” World Politics, Vol. 35, No. 4, July 1983, pp. 517-543. 即使多元主义者在之后的研究中更加注重制度的作用，但仍认为制度相对于行为体的偏好是处于第二位的。正如米尔纳在分析国内制度在国际合作的作用时指出的，“总的结论是，制度是重要的，但（行为体的）偏好则是原生的(primordial)，因为它们约束了制度影响结果的程度”。参见: Helen V. Milner, Interests, Institutions, and Information, p. 19.

[54] Fareed Zakaria, “Realism and Domestic Politics: a Review Essay,” International Security, Vol. 17, No. 1, Summer 1992, pp. 177-198.

[55] Andrew Moravcsik, “Introduction,” p. 13; Jeffrey W. Legro, Andrew Moravcsik, “Is Anybody Still a Realist?” International Security, Vol. 24, No. 2, Autumn 1999, pp. 5-55.

[56] Jeffry A. Frieden, and Lisa L. Martin, “International Political Economy,” pp. 123-125.

[57] 特别是政治学、比较政治学和国际关系研究的融合。参见: Helen V. Milner, “Rationalizing Politics: The Emerging Synthesis of International, American, and Comparative Politics,” International Organization, Vol. 52, No. 4, Autumn 1998, pp. 759-786.

[58] 托马斯·库恩(Thomas Kuhn)特别强调了把这种启发性能力作为选择不同范式的一个重要标准。参见: Thomas Kuhn, The Structure of Scientific Revolutions, Chicago: University of Chicago Press, 1962, chap. 12, 转引自Stephen D. Krasner, “Approaches to the State: Alternative Conceptions and Historical Dynamics,” Comparative Politics, Vol. 16, No. 2, 1984, January 1984, p. 245.

[59] 关于如何对待现有的跨层次分析，杰弗里·弗里登在给笔者的来信中也曾指出，“我对能够‘解决’像这样如此困难的问题有点怀疑。然而，认为通过跨层次分析不能建立好的理论的观点将是愚蠢的，我认为，政治科学是一门年轻的学科。我所认为的是，对试图一次性地解决这些重要的、包容一切的、‘大思想”(big-think)问题给予太多的关注是一个错误。在我看来，社会科学是一个积累的过程，我们通过一步一步的方式前进。”

作者：李少军

国际关系研究从经验层面上升到理论层面，是学科发展的必然。有了理论研究，人们对国际关系现象才能知其然也知其所以然。面对纷繁复杂的国际互动现象，人们如果不对现实进行某种程度的简化和理论化，就根本无法加以理解与解释。[1]用肯尼思·沃尔兹（Kenneth Waltz）的说法就是：“在没有任何理论光芒指引的情况下，却试图寻找事物间的联系，就仿佛盲目地向一个看不见的靶标射击一样，不仅要浪费大量的弹药，而且即使击中了靶心，也无人知晓。”[2]对国际关系理论的研究者来说，理论的重要性不仅在于对观察进行指导，而且在于对现实作出解释。

“理论”的涵义是什么，迄今为止学界依然言说各异。对这个概念进行讨论，我们可以先从词典的释义着手。《现代汉语词典》对“理论”的界定是关于自然界和社会的知识的有系统的结论；[3]《新牛津英语词典》的界定是意在解释某物的一个命题或概念体系，并且特别指建立在一般原则基础之上的独立于被解释物的命题或概念体系。[4]这两个界定，前者说明了理论的外延，即理论涉及自然科学知识和社会科学知识，后者说明了理论的内涵，即理论是解释一定对象的命题和概念体系。这两个在语义上互补的界定，可以作为我们讨论“理论”涵义的基础。

第一，“理论”涉及的学科、领域和具体对象。由于各个学科的研究都涉及“理论”，因此这一点似乎无须特别加以规定。例如，可以象《现代汉语词典》的释义那样泛指自然科学理论和社会科学理论，也可以具体指不同学科的理论，诸如物理学理论、史学理论、文学理论以及我们所讨论的国际关系理论等。在每一门学科之内，“理论”还可以有更具体的指涉，诸如指国际关系研究中的现实主义理论、霸权稳定论、批判理论等。

第二，“理论”本身的构成形式。有的界定认为，理论是指一套相互联系的陈述，包括基本概念、基本概念间的联系以及基本概念与观察结果的联系。也有的界定把理论定义为一种符号结构，包括一系列相互联系的假设，以及定义、规律、定理和公理等。[5]还有更简明的界定认为理论就是一组通则结合成的系统。[6]对这些界定进行综合和概括，我们可以把理论的构成解释为一个相互联系的命题和概念的体系。

对于理论与规律间的关系，肯尼思·沃尔兹的观点是有代表性的。他的提法是：“理论是对规律的解释”。沃尔兹在阐述这个问题时，比较了两种定义，即理论是“规律的集合”与理论是“对规律的解释”。沃尔兹指出，理论确实可以说是与某种特定行为或现象有关的规律的集中，但理论与规律的关系还有更深一层的含义，即理论是对规律的解释与陈述，而不仅仅是规律的集中。在这里，理论表现了与规律的质的区别。[9]沃尔兹所使用的“理论”概念，是符合科学理论的涵义的。从当代国际关系研究主流学派对“理论”概念的使用看，多数人是倾向于这种理解的，认为“理论”是对变量间关系的说明。

在国际关系研究中强调理论的“科学”内涵，是比较理直气壮的说法。然而，我们也应该注意到，有许多学派的理论是不能归入这样的范畴的。例如，属于后实证主义思潮的诸理论，包括批判理论、女性主义理论、后现代主义理论、历史社会学等，其内涵就与科学理论不同。批判理论强调理论总是有利于某人或某种目的；女性主义理论强调对男性知识的批判；后现代主义理论强调权力与知识的关系，并且关注对话语的解构，都与科学理论的要义格格不入。[10]20世纪90年代以来地位日趋上升的建构主义理论，尽管一些代表人物不否认客观物质因素，但强调国际关系的现状取决于人的共有知识的建构。所有这些强调主观因素的理论，都无意解释变量间的关系或客观规律，而是要说明国际关系的主体间涵义，或者说是要解释国际互动的社会意义。

对实证主义者来说，理论是产生于探求客观规律的过程之中。进行这样的研究，途径包括经验观察，也包括概念演绎。进行经验观察是为了描述现象之间的联系，以便发现规律。进行概念演绎是为了对规律进行解释，以便建立一套具有逻辑联系的命题作为指涉一定问题的理论。以有关“民主和平”的研究为例，一些研究者认为通过“观察”一定时段的战争，可以归纳出“民主国家之间不打仗”的“规律”。然后，从自由主义的假定出发，诸如根据人性本善和民主政治原理，就可以对“民主和平”现象演绎出这样的解释：民主国家之间之所以不打仗，是因为民主国家的公民不喜欢战争，而且，他们在民主政治体制下可以制约国家的战争行为。这样的解释，就构成了“民主和平论”。[13]

按照实证主义的比较严格的要求，探求规律的观察是应该免于理论的先在影响的，这样才能确保研究的客观性和中立性。然而，在现实的操作中，这一要求是很难做到的，因为研究者的观察不可能不受理论的影响。面对复杂纷繁的国际关系现象，有很多实证主义者认识到，没有一定的理论指导，人们就不可能知道应观察什么和怎样观察。在理论指导下进行观察，人们提出研究假设往往需要把经验因素和理性因素结合起来，既对变量间关系进行陈述，亦提出解释。对于这样的研究假设，研究者随后需要进行验证。对于通过验证的解释，人们通常认为就构成了科学意义上的理论。

在国际政治研究中，沃尔兹建构的新现实主义是演绎理论的一个典型。[14]沃尔兹通过宏观的历史考察，发现国际结果很少与行为体的意图相符，因此进行了结构的研究。他针对国际政治中反复发生的现象，特别是国际冲突与战争，提出了这样的核心观点，即无政府状态的结构导致了千百年来国际政治生活的显著相似性，使得不同行为体的行为趋向同质。沃尔兹借鉴社会学和经济学方法，解释了结构影响行为体行为的两种机制，即社会化与竞争。前一种机制指行为体的行为会塑造社会行为规范，从而使得行为体的行为趋同；后一种机制指成功者的行为会受到模仿，从而也造成了行为体行为的趋同。[15]

由于在国际关系研究中人们难以建立解释必然性的理论，所阐释的东西主要是或然性，而这种解释并不能经由严格的演绎方法得出，因此人们建立理论就需要选择另外的途径。在这里，建立解释或然性的联结理论（concatenated theories）是一种选择。这种理论的主要构成和特点，是若干准规律的联结。例如，研究者发现，军备竞赛、经济恐慌和侵略野心都可以引发战争，但这些因素与战争并不存在必然联系，也就是说其间并不存在普遍性规律。其中的每一种因素都可能构成原因，，但并非必然引发战争。在这种情况下，研究者可以把这些因素结合起来，以便在某种程度上推论其可能的后果。[19]这样的一种结构就是联结理论的系统。

在国际关系研究中，运用联结理论（未必是自觉地运用）是很常见的。人们研究一个现象、事件或双边、多边关系，常常可以发现多种影响因素。在这些因素中，人们很难确定如同A引发B那样的因果关系。在这种情况下，人们只能综合研究各个因素的影响和作用机理，并且研究不同影响因素之间的相关关系。以中美关系为例，人们要分析其走势，就不能只强调一种因素的作用，而需要综合地研究不同层面和方面的影响。尽管这种基于历史和现实的研究无法得到有关未来的必然性结论，但可以为决策者提供有价值的参考。

对于实证研究中所形成的“科学”理论，研究者都需要进行评估和检验。评估的标准包括：第一，理论应该具有系统性，即它不是单一命题，而应该是命题的结合，而且这些命题应具有内在的一致性；第二，在理论的前提与结果之间，应有严谨的逻辑关系，即结果应该是从前提演绎出来的；第三，理论的结论应该是明确的和可检验的，即它不能模棱两可；第四，理论应能解释较广泛的事实，不但应包括已发生的事实，而且应包括未来可能发生的事实。[20]

对于联结理论的可靠性与有效性进行确认，尽管比较困难，但还是可以进行的。由于这种理论不是严谨的理论，因此进行确认更有必要。这种确认至少要包括两个方面：一是要确认理论中所包含的每一个或然性规律是否有充分而适当的经验证据；二是要确认联结若干或然性规律的原则是否适当。在确认把或然性规律与特定现象或事例相联系的联结理论时，研究者不应该把一切能想到因素都列出来，而要有所选择，并且排除掉未起作用的因素，否则所作的研究就可能成为“大杂碎”。[21]

对于理论的评估，梅斯奎塔（Bruce Bueno de Mesquita）对“逻辑一致性”（logical consistency）作了特别的强调。他以摩根索的理论为例说明了这一点。按照摩根索的理论，所有国家（被假定为理性的、整体一致的行为体）都想获得尽可能多的权力；但这些国家又可分为两种类型，一种是满足于已有权力的维持现状的国家，另一种是谋求获得更多权力的帝国主义国家。从这两个命题来看，是存在内在的不一致的。[22]由于矛盾的理论可以解释矛盾的事实，因此这种理论是无法验证的。

以上对理论产生途径的分析，主要是针对解释性理论即科学理论而言的。在国际关系研究中，除了这种理论之外，还存在许多有不同产生途径的理论。以英国学派为代表的传统主义者，是在审察和理解证据的基础上，依靠判断、直觉和洞察力得出结论。虽然他们的研究也包括经验观察和概念推演，但他们同时强调国际问题研究要包括价值判断。[23]他们所提出的有代表性的“国际社会”理论，就是体现价值判断的理论。

在指涉价值的理论中，属于后实证主义的规范理论、女性主义理论、批判理论、后现代主义理论等都是更激进的学派。无论是女性主义理论对传统“男性”理论的批判，还是批判理论对人的解放的关注和后现代主义对话语霸权的解构，都是以颠覆传统研究范式和价值为途径。由于这些理论都是在解释意义的过程中产生，其解释对象不能客观地展现在人的感官之前，因此这些理论的产生都是话语分析和主观建构的产物。

在强调观念因素的理论中，已与现实主义、自由制度主义形成三足鼎立之势的建构主义亦属后实证主义理论。建构主义者通过借鉴社会学研究途径，把国际关系事实看作是人的社会行为所建构的社会事实，并且把关注重点从物质世界转向观念世界，从而经由“主体间”的途径建立了自己的理论。按照建构主义的代表人物温特的说法，物质力量本身很少能够成为解释国际